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On Feb. 19 the child religious leader spoke publicly for the first time since his flight. The Karmapa told a crowd gathered at Dharmsala, India, the headquarters-in-exile of Tibetan Buddhism, that he feared for the survival of his native culture. "Tibet, where great religions and cultures have flourished in the past, is facing a great threat of extinction," he said. "It is scary and frightening." His words directly contradict China's insistence that it respects Tibetan culture.

The arrival of Ugyen Trinley Dorje, the Karmapa -- the only major Tibetan lama recognized by both the Dalai Lama and the Chinese government as a reincarnation of his lineage -- has created a kind of Elián González dilemma for India. Both cases involve young boys caught in a political tug of war. China, embarrassed by Trinley Dorje's flight, has been pressuring India not to give him asylum.

But the Indian government is caught between a rock and a hard place, trying to figure out how to allow the Karmapa to stay without worsening relations with China, its powerful and vengeful neighbor to the north.

The Chinese say that if India grants the Karmapa asylum, it would be considered a violation of a pact the two nations have signed to try to improve relations. The Chinese would regard such a move as Indian interference in China's internal affairs, since the government is adamant about its assertion that Tibet is part of China.

The controversy over Trinley Dorje merges politics, spirituality and behind-the-scenes power struggles so Byzantine they rival the court of Henry VIII.

In addition to the Sino-Indian problems the Karmapa's flight has caused, his arrival has sparked another round in the so-called "Lama Wars," highlighting a split within the Tibetan exile community. Most Tibetan Buddhists recognize Trinley Dorje as the 17th Karmapa and the head of the Karma Kagyu order, one of Tibetan Buddhism's four main schools. Two of the regents of Rumtek Monastery in Sikkim, the traditional seat of the Karmu Kagyu order, also believe Trinley Dorje is the reincarnation of the 16th Karmapa. But a third regent, Shamar Rinpoche, opposed Trinley Dorje's selection from the beginning. Shamar recognizes another boy whom he believes is the real reincarnation of the 16th Karmapa.

As it turns out, this obscure internal struggle has cast a shadow over international relations. Since Trinley Dorje's arrival in India, Shamar has been the main proponent of the theory that the teenager is really a Chinese spy, come to further divide the Tibetan exile community. Shamar's critics dismiss his claim as a grab for power.

In April 1994, Shamar tried to install an 11-year-old boy named Tenzin Chentze as the 17th Karmapa at a ceremony in New Delhi. His supporters have asked the Indian prime minister to provide security to Tenzin Chentze so that he can go to Rumtek Monastery in Sikkim, which the 16th Karmapa established as the seat of the Karma Kagyu lineage in exile after he fled Tibet in 1959. Sikkim is another sore point for China -- it claims Sikkim as its territory and does not recognize it as part of India.

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For the people jostling for position to see the Karmapa on the last day of Losar, the Tibetan new year, politics was the last thing on their minds.

In the snowcapped Himalayas on a day the peaks disappeared into filmy clouds, hundreds of people gathered on the steps of a temple in Sidhbari, near Dharmasala. The usually quiet yellow and burgundy building, set like a worn jewel beneath the mountains, was swarming with people waiting to be admitted to a public audience with Trinley Dorje, who had fled from Tibet in late December.

They came to celebrate what they consider to be his courageous escape from the tyranny of Chinese-controlled Tibet. Many came to be blessed by the Buddhist leader, the third-ranking figure in the Tibetan spiritual hierarchy, just behind the Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama.

Taxis and buses began arriving early in the morning and kept on coming, depositing people who climbed the tall monastery steps, their costumes creating a mandala of brilliant colors: women in chubas, traditional Tibetan dresses in emerald green with pearly white blouses and striped aprons; a tiny old woman in a brown skirt, with a braid that reached to the back of her knees, toothless and smiling broadly; monks in burgundy robes; Americans in jeans and black North Face parkas; an Indian guard in olive drab standing at the base of the temple holding an M-16.

Next page | Will China use its muscle to get the boy back?