The vanishing of a tropical nation

Rising seas are swamping the 33-island republic of Kiribati. Where will its 100,000 inhabitants go when their country becomes uninhabitable?

Editor's note: Early Signs: Reports From a Warming Planet is a joint project of the UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, Salon and NPR's "Living on Earth." The series runs Fridays through May 5 in Salon, and you can find radio versions of each story on "Living on Earth's" Web site. Read about how the series came into being here.

By Aaron Selverston

Read more: Politics, News, Climate Change, Early Signs: Reports from a Warming Planet

April 14, 2006 | From 10,000 feet above the Pacific Ocean, the tropical island of Tarawa resembles the final, vanishing sliver of a waning moon -- a razor-thin curve of shimmering green floating in a vast dark ocean.

At 1,000 feet, a coconut forest emerges -- a carpet of thick green fans swaying in the wind. On the inner edge of the crescent-shaped island is a sliver of white sand; within the arc of sand, the luminescent blue-green lagoon.

On the beach, a collection of brown thatch-hut dwellings appears, scattered near the shore. A man is walking on the sand, amid soiled diapers, plastic bottles and assorted other rubbish. The shoreline has changed radically in the 30 years since he last came to this spot, the site of his childhood home. Dr. Uentabo MacKenzie is a Tarawa native, which means he has grown accustomed to Tarawa's sanitation problems. Today, MacKenzie's attention is focused directly in front of him, by his feet, where two small concrete blocks poke up out of the sand.

"This is the foundation of the house I grew up in," MacKenzie says. Turning to his right, he gestures toward the area between him and the lagoon. "This is my old playground. I remember we used to play soccer here, only [the beach] used to go out much further, maybe 30 or 40 yards."

Many of the 33 islands that make up the Republic of Kiribati are facing severe erosion. On Tarawa, MacKenzie says, a long causeway connecting the main part of Tarawa to the islet of Betio has had the effect of changing the circulation in the lagoon and, subsequently, the shape of the coastline. He also says that on Tarawa and the outer islands, manmade sea walls often have the unintended consequence of pushing sand away from the beaches, weakening an important buffer against tidal surge.

But sea walls and causeways are, unfortunately, minor players compared with the greater force affecting the people of Kiribati: global climate change.

MacKenzie authored a World Bank report on the social impacts of climate change here, and he directs the Kiribati branch of the University of South Pacific. He says that in addition to noticing the erosion, people have begun complaining of hotter temperatures, less variety and quantity of fish, changes in wind patterns, and the contamination of fresh groundwater by saltwater from the Pacific Ocean -- evidence of rising sea levels.

A previous World Bank report found that up to 80 percent of North Tarawa, as well as more than 50 percent of the densely populated South Tarawa, could be under water by 2050 as a result of global warming. And the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents the consensus on climate science, agrees that Kiribati is highly vulnerable. Stretching over 2.1 million square miles of ocean midway between Australia and Hawaii, Kiribati comprises only 504 square miles of land, making the country less than half the size of Rhode Island. The IPCC report predicts that a one-meter rise in sea level could wipe out 63 of those square miles.

Sea-level rise is "by far the greatest threat to small island states," according to the IPCC, and due to rising sea levels, "beach erosion and coastal land loss, inundation, flooding, and salinization of coastal aquifers and soils will be widespread."

The IPCC reported in 2003 that global sea levels have been rising almost an inch per decade in the 20th century, and will likely rise between three and nine feet in the century ahead.

Furthermore, the IPCC numbers account for hardly any glacial melt. A Science magazine report from February of this year found that Greenland's massive ice shelf, which contains nearly 10 percent of the world's freshwater supply, is losing mass two to three times faster than previously thought. The author of the Science report says the IPCC predictions "are probably low," and that sea-level rise is likely to be two to three times as great, which could mean a rise of anywhere from six to 27 feet in the next hundred years.

The islands of the Republic of Kiribati, currently home to nearly 100,000 people, average only six feet above sea level.

"I have no doubt that these islands will be inundated," says MacKenzie, "or if they're not inundated, that the livelihood of people will be very difficult, because [climate change] will affect saltwater incursion into our water tables, it will affect our plant life, and it will affect the water we drink."

MacKenzie gazes off to the right toward the curving line of coconut palms spanning the 40-mile coast of the lagoon before him. Beads of sweat cross his brow, and he raises a hand to shield his eyes from the sun.

"It's interesting," he says. "People on the islands have begun to measure erosion according to how many rows of coconut trees have died back. There used to be three rows of trees here" -- he points to the open, sandy beach -- "but now they are gone."

MacKenzie admires the development projects brought to Kiribati by Western nations -- most significantly England, the country's former colonial master. But he can't help but feel that his people are being unfairly disadvantaged because of global warming.

"We don't cause climate change," he says. "It was something that was caused from outside our world over which we have no control. But ultimately we will be the first victims of it."

Anote Tong, president of the Republic of Kiribati, shares MacKenzie's concern.

"For us it's a matter of survival," Tong says. "We seriously cannot discuss issues of development if in the longer term we are facing an issue of survival. So no matter how much we develop in the next decades, if in 50 years' time we're going to go under, what is the purpose of it all?"

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