How will Barack Obama get to 270?

Oregon -- 7 votes

The land of Nike has hovered between true tossup and strongly Democratic for the past 25 years. But the nadir was Clinton 1996, when it ranked only 28th in Democratic performance. Since then it has moved up to 21st and then 16th. The state's blue-collar, timber industry roots are fading, leaving a fairly suburban and nearly all-white voting base. This is, for the most part, a fight over the educated and affluent, and unless the roof is caving in, one would suspect that Obama has a distinct edge over McCain. It is much harder for McCain to play the patriotic/values card here than in, say, Missouri or even New Mexico. And Portland and its environs is a decidedly different "West" than Phoenix, and for more reasons than just the weather.

Pennsylvania -- 21 votes

As when two American armies slugged it out at Gettysburg over three hot July days nearly 150 years ago, so too will this fall's Pennsylvania battle be an epic. The stakes are high for both sides. McCain must try to break Obama's back in working-class America, and what better place to attempt it than the Keystone State? Pennsylvania's recent track record has been narrow Democratic wins -- since 1996, better than Ohio but worse than Michigan. Democrats have balanced their losses due to abortion (Northeastern Pennsylvania), guns (the whole state) and values (ditto) with a shockingly improved showing in the four suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia. Shocking, at least, to this writer, who grew up in those suburbs at a time when in most of them the only election of any note was the Republican primary. Pennsylvania's rural voters are not as "Southern" as those in neighboring Ohio, but they are old and white and their dominance of the so-called T -- the area between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and along the New York border -- gives the GOP enough votes to have an outside shot here. Notably, Pennsylvania's Democratic primary was Carter's coronation in 1976 and also provided easy margins for Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore and Kerry. Obama, not so much.

Can McCain play both sides of the coin -- winning back some of the lost suburban votes (where, it should be noted, Obama slipped versus Clinton in last month's primary) while at the same time picking off blue-collar Democrats in "Deer Hunter" territory? The answer to that question might answer the ultimate one as well.

Washington -- 11 votes

Two words. Starbucks. Microsoft. If the Democrats are in trouble here, then it's lights out nationally. Yes, Boeing is still a major influence. Yes, the African-American presence is negligible, Jimi Hendrix notwithstanding. But in a state dominated by the ethnically diverse and culturally tolerant media market of Seattle, it is hard to imagine Barack Obama falling short.

II. Expanding the universe -- the tough ones, Southern division

Obama's total, if he wins all six of the "must-win" states above, would be 238. (Eighty-one votes plus the safe blue 157 equals 238.) The next 32 votes are a harder slog, however.

Four states produced Bush victory margins between 5 and 10 points above his national edge in 2004, meaning that they would theoretically be within reach for a Democratic candidate this fall. Theory bumps up against reality in two of them, however. Arizona has now become a safe GOP victory because it has a native son in the race. In Arkansas, Democratic prospects would seem to be firmly linked to the presence or absence of a Clinton on the ticket. And even in the unlikely event that happens, given that it would be Hillary Clinton -- who now represents New York in the Senate -- one should feel a bit dubious about Democratic prospects.

The other two states in this quartet are North Carolina and Virginia, and therein lies a different tale.

North Carolina -- 15 votes

The Tarheel State's best Democratic ranking in the past five elections was 2004 -- but it was still only the 31st most Democratic state with the Kerry-Edwards ticket winning 43.6 percent of the vote. Where would another 6.5 percent come from? Well, some of it could arrive courtesy of African-Americans. While Democrats have traditionally enjoyed a huge advantage among the party's most loyal constituency, the prospect of an African-American president will assuredly take that contribution to a maximum level. What might that mean? I would think at least one-tenth of a percentage point for every 2 percentage points of a given state's electorate that is black -- and perhaps higher. The logic runs as follows: Democrats, in the past two presidential elections, have won the African-American vote by about 80 percentage points. Nine out of 10 black voters chose Gore in 2000, 88 out of 100 chose Kerry in 2004. Couldn't the margin easily be 84 points or even higher this time? And won't the turnout be demonstrably higher, as it has been in the primaries? What if, in North Carolina, where African-Americans are about 20 percent of the electorate, they rise to 21 percent this year and Obama wins them 93-7. That adds a point to the state's Democratic total from 2004.

So now Obama is at 44.6 percent. Could he possibly gain the additional 5 percent or so from new voters and the type of moderate whites in the Charlotte suburbs or the Research Triangle where he performed so well in the primary? Doubtful, but it is worth the effort, if for no other reason than to pin some of McCain's time and money down in at least one Southern state. And here is one area where a 50-state strategy really comes into play. Obama will have more money than John Kerry. He will be able to spend it in a longer list of states.

Virginia -- 13 votes

Democrats have come further in Virginia than in its neighbor to the south for one simple reason: the mighty and growing influence of the Washington, D.C., suburbs. With each year that passes the Northern Virginia suburbs increase in political importance. Kerry ran 2 points better in the Commonwealth than in North Carolina, though the African-American vote is nearly identical in size. Applying the Carolina logic above, all other things being equal, Obama should improve on Kerry's total by at least a point, meaning he might be at around 46 or 46.5 percent before four more years of Northern Virginia population growth is factored in.

But in Virginia, fortune both smiles and frowns on the Democrats. There is more good news in the fact that Obama could select one of two Virginia officeholders as his running mate. Either Gov. Tim Kaine or Sen. Jim Webb could push him over the top, which is already tantalizingly close. Webb in particular offers a military background that might help appeal to working-class Democrats and independents. But that same military component works against Obama as well. Will he be able to pick off military voters in the Tidewater region, home of the world's largest naval base, when he is running against a former Navy pilot and prisoner of war?

Despite Obama's impressive primary victory in Virginia, there is also the possibility that race might rear its head in the former headquarters of the Confederacy. But then one remembers that 19 years ago, Virginia's Doug Wilder won the laurels that had eluded Tom Bradley in California, becoming the nation's first elected black governor. Was Wilder the John the Baptist heralding an even greater victory in the land of Washington and Jefferson?

In the unlikely event that Obama wins both states, he'll be at 266 votes, four votes short of victory. But the event is unlikely. Time to call in reinforcements from the West.

Next page: The other reason why Obama could pull Colorado into the blue column is the nature of the Front Range