How will Barack Obama get to 270?

III. Expanding the universe -- the tough ones west of the Mississippi

I suspect that one side or the other will look back at these next states rather wistfully after November, with regret over the fact that their opportunity ran smack into a clear strength for the other guy. It is simply too early to determine whose luck is rotten. Start with the three Western states.

Colorado -- 9 votes

It is axiomatic that the Northern Effect -- whites voting more Democratic the closer one gets to the Canadian border -- has a cousin: the Homogeneity Syndrome. Minority candidates will win a higher proportion of the white vote the lower the African-American population in that state or city. The logic is pretty simple. With exceptions, where white voters, be they in Chicago, Philadelphia or Alabama, feel threatened by a large black population, they bind together against the embodiment of that threat -- i.e, a minority candidate. Where the minority population is few and far between the perceived threat dissipates and so does much of the motivation for an anti-minority vote.

Barack Obama will need to win nearly half of the white vote in most Western states in order to carry them this fall -- and yet he is heavily favored in Oregon and Washington, and has a good chance in Colorado and Nevada. Colorado just elected someone who is not a white male to the Senate, but of course Ken Salazar is far more conservative than his Illinois counterpart. He is also Hispanic, wherein lies another conundrum. Latino Democrats have so far preferred Hillary Clinton by wide margins, and there is clearly at least some black-brown tension. Will the recent Democratic gains among Hispanics, fueled by Republican obsession with the immigration issue, survive 2008? I would suspect that the answer is a qualified yes. Hispanics, after all, are an ascendant force, and if there is a backlash quotient it is more likely to be the other way around. And is there enough tension in critical geographic areas to make a difference? Denver, for example, has had a recent African-American mayor but seems to be free of most black-brown rivalry.

The other reason why Obama could pull Colorado -- where John Kerry won 47 percent of the vote, a 3 point gain from Al Gore's 2000 total -- into the blue column is the nature of the Front Range, meaning the urban sprawl of greater Denver. This is an environmentally conscious, socially tolerant population that is culturally very in tune with Obama's change message. But it is the West, and John McCain of Arizona will attempt to appeal to voters throughout his home region with his own version of the distrust Washington/federal government/pioneer spirit/individualist regional message. I suspect Colorado, while not deaf to that message, will be less susceptible to it than the two states that follow.

Nevada -- 5 votes

I suppose the Silver State should not be compared to anything, so unique is its economy and social structure. Democrats have done relatively well here the last four elections, winning narrowly in 1992 and 1996 and falling just short in 2004. Obama has a wellspring of younger, unaffiliated voters to draw upon, but McCain does enjoy a closer proximity and shared desert identity. This one should go down to the wire.

New Mexico -- 5 votes

And this one always goes down to the wire, which usually means waiting for the latest vote-count snafus in Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) to be cleared up a day or two later. New Mexico has deviated a grand total of 1 percentage point from the winner's share of the vote in the last three elections combined, by far the closest collective finish of any state. That may not be a good sign for the Democrats. For while the Hispanic population is large at nearly 30 percent of the vote, it has always been counterbalanced by suburban voters around Albuquerque and also "Little Texas," the conservative ranching communities to the east. Will Hispanics turn out in larger numbers for an African-American nominee? Or will John McCain's Southwestern roots improve Republican hopes among Anglos enough to stem any Democratic turnout tide? Would adding Bill Richardson to the Democratic ticket make the difference -- assuming America is ready for a black-brown combination?

Assuming no defection from our list of Democratic states, the safe ones and the must-wins, the ticket would have amassed 238 electoral votes before reckoning with the seven tough and semi-tough states in the South and Southwest listed above. A Southwestern sweep would put Obama at 257, tantalizingly close to victory. Winning the two small states and not Colorado makes it 248; the reverse outcome (just as likely) would make it 247. A McCain sweep might require Obama to counterbalance that regional domination with his own in the Midwest.

Iowa -- 7 votes

The best shot for a Democratic pickup in the Midwest would be Iowa. Gore won the state narrowly, and Kerry lost it narrowly. It has vacillated between solidly Democratic and barely Democratic for 20 years. This would appear to be a year where solid is more likely. After all, Obama became the front-runner with a surprising caucus victory, while McCain has essentially ignored the state both times he has run for president. The Illinois influence is large in Eastern Iowa and the state is lousy with both Cubs and Bears fans. The only drawbacks are age and demography. Iowa has one of the nation's oldest populations (like Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arkansas) and lacks the type of large suburban population that contributes to Obama's popularity in the Northeast.

Missouri -- 11 votes

Obama also has a chance, albeit slimmer, to win the Show Me State. If the Western states feature a collision between New Age tolerance and desert ruggedness, Missouri is a showdown between Limbaugh and Chicago. It was no accident that Obama visited Cape Girardeau this week, the conservative radio commentator's Mississippi River hometown south of St. Louis. Can Obama ride an enhanced African-American vote out of St. Louis and Kansas City together with suburban support from those same markets, on top of the comfort level voters in Eastern Missouri must feel with him, since they have been watching his political ads since 2004? Can hip-hop top country, or will Branson and the Ozarks help create a strong conservative force that spills over to those same suburbs and uses the natural rivalry with Chicago that exists in Eastern Missouri against the Democrat? Recall also that Kansas and Missouri fought a border war in the 1850s, and the enmity is not forgotten.

Kerry gave up here and still won 46 percent of the vote. Obama won this primary, albeit by a whisker, his only success in any border state. Can a Chicago resident whose mother grew up in Kansas possibly carry Missouri?

Next page: Could choosing Ohio's popular Democratic governor as his running mate be Obama’s answer?