Cave's article is a good examination of the current issues, but leaves out some very important factors. First: People do what they know, especially when they have money at stake, and since Hollywood is used to paying for Avids, Avid will persist on this human characteristic for quite a while.
Second: Avid is already over in Hollywood, in that the vast majority of projects edited on Avid are using the ABVB version, which has been out of production for almost three years.
Third: If all of Hollywood bought new Avids tomorrow, it wouldn't put much of a dent in their financial situation. If the thousand Avids working in studio features and television were all replaced tomorrow, it wouldn't add up to one-quarter of the company's current gross. Avid's future, if it has one, is in broadcast integration, where costs are under just as much, if not more pressure than Hollywood. And Avid has yet to make inroads on the established vendors in that market space.
Fourth: Apple's established MO of letting third parties integrate and support their products will slow high-end penetration. If Apple truly attacks the marketplace, especially with the resources to create reliable turnkey networked solutions for broadcast post, then you can put a fork in Avid. Either way, this issue will be resolved much sooner than the 10 years mentioned in the article.
-- Patrick Gregston, board member, Motion Picture Editors Guild
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