One-third chance of filibuster-proof Senate

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver raises the probability of 60 seats to 32 percent.

By Thomas Schaller

Published October 20, 2008 5:28PM (EDT)

It's gonna be tough for Democrats to get to 60, filibuster-proof seats in the Senate for the 111th Congress, even with independents Bernie Sanders and Senator Sanctimony included.

But, based on his models, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver today raised the probability of reaching 60 seats to 32 percent, inching up a bit from last week.

That's a one-third chance. Not too bad.


By Thomas Schaller

Thomas F. Schaller is professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and the author of "Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South." Follow him @schaller67.

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