President Donald Trump’s decision to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in May may be bold, but experts seem to agree that it is more likely to be unproductive than successful.
It’s a position that Trump himself seemed to hold at one point. In October, he aroused controversy by undercutting Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s attempts to engage in productive dialogue with North Korea by publicly denouncing those efforts as a “waste of time.”
I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2017
Trump has also derided efforts by his presidential predecessors to work with North Korea.
Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid……
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2017
…hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2017
Trump has also in the past stopped Tillerson from meeting with North Korea “without preconditions,” according to Bloomberg. Yet Trump himself appears to be meeting with Kim despite the absence of preconditions, making the upcoming bilateral summit even more of a contradiction from Trump’s previous stance toward the country.
“If the U.S. does come to the negotiating table, it might show North Korea the U.S. sees it as an equal, even if that’s not the intent,” writes Shannon Vavra of Axios. “That’s one big, tacit concession to the Kim regime — North Korea has long-wanted to be seen as a major player on the world stage.”
Axios also pointed to recent tweets by Suzanne DiMaggio, who has been leading unofficial talks between the United States and North Korea, as further evidence that part of Kim Jong Un’s end game in wanting to speak with Trump is the default legitimacy that directly meeting with an American president would bestow upon him.
My early take on a potential Kim Jong Un – Trump confab: We’d expect such a highly symbolic meeting to happen after some concrete deliverables were in hand, not before. If it helps to establish a process for serious, sustained negotiations, then it’s a positive move…
— Suzanne DiMaggio (@suzannedimaggio) March 9, 2018
But it will have to be managed carefully & w/ a great deal of prep work. Otherwise, it runs the risk of being more spectacle than substance. Right now, KJU is setting the agenda & the pace, & the Trump admin is reacting. The admin needs to move quickly to change this dynamic.
— Suzanne DiMaggio (@suzannedimaggio) March 9, 2018
Another concern about the upcoming bilateral meeting is that, even if Trump were able to achieve some of America’s immediate diplomatic goals regarding North Korea, it would be very difficult if not impossible to determine whether they’ve been followed.
“Statements from the administration suggest that the U.S. goal is for North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and become a non-nuclear power,” former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry wrote. “There is every reason to doubt that North Korea would be willing to go that far; but even if they are, there remains a fundamental question: How could we possibly verify such an agreement?”
Not everyone is convinced that Trump is sincere in his desire to resolve things with North Korea. On Friday, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough described Trump’s decision as a “deflection” from controversies like his tough new tariff proposals and his alleged past affair with former adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
It’s a theory that’s not too implausible.
