Move over, peak oil. Scientists say "peak livestock" must arrive this decade to limit global heating

In an open letter to The Lancet Planetary Health journal Wednesday, a group of scientists called for setting a date to reach "peak livestock" production and pursuing dramatic efforts to restore vegetation in the next decade to curb planet-heating emissions, increase natural carbon sequestration, and avert climate catastrophe.

Referencing the primary temperature rise targets of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the letter says that "continued growth of the livestock sector increases the risk of exceeding emissions budgets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C, limits the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through restoring native vegetation, and threatens remaining natural carbon sinks where land could be converted to livestock production."

Specifically, the scientists warn that "if the livestock sector were to continue with business as usual, this sector alone would account for 49% of the emissions budget for 1.5°C by 2030, requiring other sectors to reduce emissions beyond a realistic or planned level."

Helen Harwatt, a fellow at Harvard Law School and lead author of the letter, has previously published research on the necessity of driving down meat and dairy consumption to achieve global climate goals.

"Countries should be looking for peak livestock within the next 10 years," Harwatt toldThe Guardian Thursday. "This is because we need steep and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as we are reaching dangerous temperature tipping points."

The letter, which lists four other scientists as co-authors and over 50 (pdf) signatories, details four measures that the scientists believe high-income and middle-income countries should implement from 2020 onward to combat the climate crisis:

• First, declare a timeframe for peak livestock — i.e., livestock production from each species would not continue to increase from this point forward.
• Second, within the livestock sector, identify the largest emissions sources or the largest land occupiers, or both, and set appropriate reduction targets for production. This process would be repeated sequentially, to set reduction targets for the next largest emitter or land occupier.
• Third, within a reconfiguration of the agriculture sector, apply a best available food strategy to diversify food production by replacing livestock with foods that simultaneously minimize environmental burdens and maximize public health benefits — mainly pulses (including beans, peas, and lentils), grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and seeds.
• Fourth, when grazing land is not required or is unsuitable for horticulture or arable production, adopt a natural climate solutions approach where possible, to repurpose land as a carbon sink by restoring native vegetation cover to its maximum carbon sequestration potential with additional benefits to biodiversity.

Experts and activists have increasing pushed for pursuing natural solutions to battle climate and ecological breakdown — including with a bold campaign that launched in April. In a video released in September that featured teen activist Greta Thunberg, writer and campaign leader George Monbiot explained that "mangroves, peatbogs, jungles, marshes, seabeds, kelp forests, swamps, coral reefs, they take carbon out of the air and lock it away. Nature is a tool we can use to repair our broken climate."

The scientists behind the new letter acknowledge that their suggestions don't comprehensively cover climate mitigation actions related to agriculture, but they assert that their four key recommendations "are necessary to adhere to the equity component of the Paris agreement, and are considered part of a suite of measures that are needed across all sectors to reduce the risk of reaching temperature levels beyond the Paris goals."