It's unclear whether the "Red Wave" the Republicans have been talking about since early 2022 will eventually materialize, but one thing is certain: Something is happening in early voting and it's helping the Democrats.
MSNBC showed numbers in Ohio, Georgia and Wisconsin that prove the enthusiasm of Democrats to get to the polls isn't as suppressed as GOP pollsters want to believe.
In one conversation with Nicolle Wallace and Joy Reid on the election panel Monday, Reid explained that people don't simply forget that they were freaked out by an attack on the Capitol or that they've lost their right to govern their own health care.
She also addressed the issue of a large swath of women voting. It isn't because they're rushing to fight inflation, she explained.
"Women just don't get over the idea that they no longer own their bodies. That's not something that they say, 'Hey, you know, I wish milk was a little cheaper. I'll probably get over it.' That isn't something that happens," said Reid. "So, when I look at the electorate and the way that campaigns are looking at it, they're saying, can Republicans catch up to that 4 million vote lead on Election Day? Because that's when they are voting."
Wallace had another point when it came to the issue of choice and abortion rights. She noted that despite being a longtime political operative, she doesn't trust the polls, particularly when it comes to women.
"I think it's unknowable," said Wallace about whether women are being reflected in voter expectations. "Because I think if you don't trust your Apple Watch to track your period, you're not responding to a pollster about how, whether you care a lot or not at all. It doesn't answer the question. I don't know if you're taking those calls anymore, if you are that kind of voter. I also think that this idea that the Dobbs vote peaked early — it's 50 years of precedent overturned! You don't get over it in, like, 12 weeks."
She also noted that she thinks it's a trap to say that people can have democracy or they can have cheap milk, and that was the point that Barack Obama made on the campaign trail over the weekend.
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Meanwhile, the numbers are what is making many Democrats hopeful heading into Tuesday.
In Ohio, for example, in 2018, Republican early voting outmatched Dems by 2.3 percent. In 2022, however, the discrepancy of enthusiasm has Democrats in the lead by 4.9 percent.
In Georgia, where there was a competitive gubernatorial seat with Stacey Abrams the first time. Republicans held the edge in early voting numbers by 4.6 percent. But this year, Georgia Republicans aren't going anywhere near the early voting. They've only had 41.2 percent of their voters turnout. Democrats, by contrast, have 49 percent of their voters coming in for early voting.
In Wisconsin, the early vote for Republicans in 2020 was an outright embarrassment for Democrats. They scored 45.9 percent of the early voting with Dems only hitting 35.1 percent. That number has certainly changed in 2022. Democrats are voting early to the tune of 37.1 percent to Republicans 34.4 percent.
These are simply percentages, they're not charts of actual votes or vote totals, and they're certainly no substitute for needed votes on Tuesday. If Democrats manage to turn out on Election Day as much as they did in 2020, things could look very different than Republican pollsters have indicated over the past few weeks.
See the full panel discussion below:
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