Tucker Carlson is gone — his Fox News replacement might be worse

When you write and think publicly about the news and politics there is a great amount of pressure to always be certain and to be fast – or ideally both. This is also a type of public performance: one is expected to act as though they are 100 percent certain and correct even when they are full of inner doubt and anxiety. Moreover, to be a member of the Church of the Savvy and "the punditry" means to almost never apologize or course correct if one is wrong.

The capacity to throw one's errors in analysis and prediction down the memory well and to continue forward confidently is almost a requirement to be a successful member of that media and political class. Of course, some members of that class have more latitude for having their errors forgiven and forgotten. White men and white women of a certain social pedigree have that privilege. Black and brown people and others who are not from "traditional" backgrounds in the news media most certainly do not.

As psychologist Phillip Tetlock argues there are two different approaches to problem solving and making predictions and plans. One can choose to be a "hedgehog", which is a person who has some type of grand or unifying theory that they use to reconcile the facts and their understanding of the world. Alternatively, one can choose to be a "fox" who searches out different information and is more pragmatic and comfortable with contradictions and nuance as they try to make sense of present events and the future. Tetlock also highlights the merit of being a fox by how they are more inclined to change their minds as the facts when given new information. Foxes are also more comfortable challenging the consensus of settled facts and opinions.

In my public writing and thinking, I pivot between being a fox and a hedgehog depending on the question and problem at hand. But my natural inclination is to be a fox.

In terms of the public performance of punditry and expertise, the media machine and our political moment, and culture more generally, rewards charisma and compelling personalities (most of whom are generalists) who can tell a great story in 30 seconds on TV or offer provocative "hot takes" as opposed to the more meditative and measured real expert who may be less entertaining. Such an approach has done no small amount of harm to America's political culture. One can trace a direct line from those changes in the country's news media and popular culture in the 1970s and 1980s to the rise of neofascism, the country's larger democracy crisis, and the Age of Trump today.

What we, the Americans, need in this moment of crisis and fascist fever dream and nightmare is to learn to think clearly, to ponder, and to breathe while with orient ourselves to escape "the Trumpocene". Unfortunately, our culture is sick with what political theorists and philosophers are describing as "hyper-politics," where late capitalism, digital media, overlapping crises, and what feels like an endless torrent of events – and the feelings of dread and disorientation such forces are causing – means everything is so sped up that there is little time for contemplation or critical thinking. In short, we as individuals and as a culture need to slow down, but we are not being allowed to do so. The neofascists, gangster capitalists, and other anti-democratic and anti-human actors want it that way.

On Monday, Fox "News" personality Tucker Carlson was suddenly fired by the network. He is the most popular host in the most-watched time slot. His influence across the right-wing echo chamber and the neo-fascist MAGAverse is immense. Although such language is overused, it does apply here: Tucker Carlson's being forced out of Fox "News" is indeed shocking.

I was asked by a good number of people, What do you think? How did this happen? What does it all mean? I told them "I don't know". Those are perhaps the three worst and most dirty words for those who are members of the commentariat or punditry.

Here is where we are in the Tucker Carlson-Fox "News" story.

There is no definitive answer for why Tucker Carlson was suddenly fired from Fox "News". It has been reported and rumored that the Dominion lawsuit and what was revealed about Tucker's hostility towards Trump, his attorneys, and other members of the MAGAverse would be too detrimental to Fox "News" going forward. Others have suggested that Tucker is out from Fox "News" because he is named in a sexual harassment lawsuit which claims that Fox "News" nurtured a workplace culture and environment that encouraged hostile sexism, racism, and harassment. Some observers have applied Occam's razor that Fox "News" is a business and the powers that be made a basic cost-benefit calculation that Carlson, given his outsized personality, a growing amount of negative attention, and other actual and potential conflicts was simply no longer worth the trouble to keep around. There have even been suggestions that Carlson's public and private connections to malign actors in Russia and Hungary and the larger global right could be the reason he was so quickly dumped like three-day-old fish heads and guts. For all we know, the real reason for Carlson's sudden exit may be something even worse. As of the time of this writing, there is no definite answer.

Contrary to the expected public performance and public expectation, I do not really care about why Tucker Carlson was fired by Fox "News." The reasons are largely irrelevant to me. What we do know about Tucker Carlson and what the poison and pain he has caused to American politics and society during his time at Fox "News" both through his direct actions, what he represents and symbolizes, and has given tacit and active permission for are more than horrific enough to have merited his removal from the public airwaves years ago.

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Carlson was a central figure in Donald Trump and the Republican-fascists Big Lie and coup attempt on Jan. 6. In his role as a lead provocateur and propagandist, Carlson has continued to valorize and lionize Trump's MAGA terrorists who launched a lethal assault on the Capitol as part of the coup attempt.

Carlson is a malign actor who routinely uses stochastic terrorism to encourage violence against Black and brown people, the LGBTQ community, refugees and migrants, antifascists, supporters of the Black Lives Matter movement, people who believe in and support women's reproductive rights and freedoms, Muslims, Democrats, liberals, progressives, and others he deems to be some the enemy of "real America." Carlson, through the policies he advocates for, speech, guests on his various shows, and other actions has shown himself to be a white supremacist, an antisemite, and a racial authoritarian.

Media watchdogs and other experts have routinely highlighted how Carlson is one of the right-wing media personalities most responsible for mainstreaming what were once fringe white supremacist beliefs and conspiracy theories — like "white people" are being "replaced" or at risk of "extinction" from Black and brown people.

In a post on Twitter, political strategist Steve Schmidt said this about Carlson: "Tucker Carlson wasn't a zealot who held extreme beliefs. He was a con man who held no beliefs. He was singularly, besides Donald Trump, the most cynical performer on all of television."

Schmidt's choice of language here is important: Carlson is a fascist political performance artist and Fox "News" is the mainstage. To highlight that fascism and the Age of Trump and this ongoing disaster are the result of a merging of politics, emotions, storytelling, symbolism, collective psychopathology and identity, and the Irrational – and yes theater – is to properly understand the deeper nature of the threat to democracy and why such illiberal and fake populist politics are so compelling to some many people. Too many members of the mainstream news media and political class – especially professional "centrists" – refuse to acknowledge that reality while they cling to obsolescent frameworks of "normal politics" and "real politics" with its emphasis on elections, voting, public opinion, public policy, and the horserace.

In the Age of Trump and its fascist imaginary, Tucker Carlson is one of the main villains. In that role, he is a reliable source of daily controversy and attention. Carlson, along with Donald Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Ron DeSantis, Steve Bannon, and a few other central members of the neofascist rogues' gallery, figures that many among the American public, especially Democrats, liberals, and progressives love to hate and otherwise pay attention to.

In the attention economy of the 21^st century with its obsessive focus on "eyes", "downloads", "shares", "likes", "clicks", "circulation", "engagement", "time on page" and other metrics, Carlson et al are almost guaranteed box office. Thus, while many members of the American news media are celebrating Tucker Carlson's departure from Fox "News", there will be, if it has not already happened, a moment of panic and terror about what comes next. What will "we" do without Tucker Carlson and his daily Fox "News" hate broadsides?

I would suggest that such worry is much exaggerated and very premature.

Tucker Carlson is not really going anywhere; he may actually (re)emerge in an even worse and more dangerous form somewhere else – perhaps even as a presidential candidate.

On Twitter, historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat warned:

Carlson is a Fascist demagogue w/huge power over Americans & far-right partners in Brasilia, Budapest, Moscow. He will never squander this capital; plus never underestimate Fox's cynicism. He leaves in return for Fox backing if he runs for office is one outcome.

Also on Twitter, the Lincoln Project cautioned that:

Let's not all forget that @FoxNews is going to replace him with someone even worse for democracy. This is just their attempt to "be normal" for a while. Our fight against #FoxLies continues.

Pollster Rachel Bitecofer also warned on Twitter that:

No one will want to hear this, but if Carlson runs for the GOP nomination, he's likely to win. 100% name ID, celebrity, and indie wealth are the best assets a nomination hopeful can possess, and no one but Trump and Carlson have it.

Ultimately, just as Fox "News" quickly moved on from Bill O'Reilly (something once considered unimaginable) it will find a replacement for Tucker Carlson.

As reported by Rolling Stone, "'It was a good move to part ways with Tucker,' added a producer. 'He knowingly spread lies throughout his time at Fox, but I fear management will replace him with someone who is just like him … so there probably won't be any real change.'"

The Fox "News" universe is far bigger than any one person. The infernal machine will continue largely unstopped because there is a huge market for its poison.