What if Biden bows out?

With no real Democratic challenger to worry about, President Joe Biden seems poised to skate through the primaries and emerge as his party's nominee for President. While his hopes for a second term may seem bright at this point, there are worrying signs on the horizon that may call into question his hopes to serve as a two-term president. Chief among them is the certainty that the Republicans and their media outlets will go all-in to raise doubts about Biden's age. 

The prospect that Kamala Harris might become president will lead the Republicans to draw lessons from the Republican playbook and orchestrate a relentless assault on Biden's character and behavior. We need only remember the constant drumbeat against Hillary Clinton in 2016 where "Benghazi" became a central, and oft repeated issue for the Republicans in their effort to undermine the reputation of Clinton. That one word was designed to call into question Clinton's judgment and character. And while there may have been very little  "there, there", the constant repetition of that one word led many voters to come to believe that there must be something there, at least something to worry about.

"What about her emails?"

The oft repeated question Republicans raised focused attention on another potential weakness, reminding voters that there were questions about Clinton's character. The relentless assaults on Clinton — namely, the drip, drip of the daily assaults — wore Clinton down, forced her to focus on answering questions of character and judgment, and distracted her from the key issues of the campaign. When the Republicans were able to refocus the attention on the negatives, room was created for voter doubt, and for the charismatic Trump to make bold promises, offer simplistic solutions, and more importantly, draw attention away from Trump's own multiple character faults. It worked. The 2016 election was not about competence but which party could do the most damage to the rival's reputation.

What will Biden face? In a word:  "Huntergate." 

Every day, especially when the Republicans in the House begin to hold hearings aimed at Hunter Biden, the Republican assault machine will drag the president's son through the mud and try to link Biden to possible corrupt practices. The lie, oft repeated, becomes for many, the truth. All this will raise questions about Biden and is designed to drive up his negatives.  

Would Biden be prepared to daily defend his family and himself from the pounding that will certainly come? Would it even matter? 

This all leaves the very real possibility that Biden might conclude that it is not worth seeing his family dragged through the mud every day of the campaign. In the long run, being a successful one-term president just might be enough for the 80 year old Biden. And the judgment of history is likely to place him above many of the recent presidents, so why take the risk?

So if Biden pulls out, who are the likely prospects to take the nomination? 

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At the outset, Vice President Kamala Harris would be a likely frontrunner, but she has negatives within the party and might not have the gravitas to win the nomination. The already announced Democratic rivals, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Marianne Williamson, pose no threat and would fade if the field is filled with more viable alternatives. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would have a strong liberal following, but they are older and yesterday's model. 

What about the Democratic governors?  Gavin Newsome of California would be a formidable candidate, but he is both too slick, and from "California" (a dirty word in many states). Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan? A very real possibility. Phil Murphy of New Jersey, J. B. Pritzner of Illinois, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Jared Polis of Colorado also all have a strong plus side. And several Democratic Senators (e.g. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Michael Bennett of Colorado, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island) might also have a realistic shot at the nomination in an open process.  

Perhaps the most attractive alternative for the Democrats is Pete Buttigieg, the current Transportation Secretary and a darling of the Democratic Party, but he too has negatives that pose a potential election problem.  A Democratic dream ticket in the mold of Joe Biden would be Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky for president (age: 45), and Gina Riamondo, former governor of Rhode Island and current commerce secretary (age: 52) as vice president. Both are pragmatic, centrist Democrats who have demonstrated the ability to mobilize moderates and independents. 

Assuming that Trump will be the Republican nominee, the best strategy for the Democrats might be to nominate someone with no obvious disqualifiers. The blander the better. Given enough rope, Trump will hang himself. And so, the Democrats, if they can give Trump little to attack, could win handily. 

The key for the Democrats is not to spread the word of the good news about the state of the economy, or the peace and prosperity we are now enjoying, but to not give the Republicans a target for their scandal machine. The most acceptable candidate in the general election is the "not Trump" candidate who is not vulnerable to the attack machine. At this point, this is all speculation, but when will speculation give way to strategy, and will President Biden read the political tea leaves telling him to step back?