Kevin McCarthy secures Trump's payback — but at what cost?

On August 28th, Donald Trump had had enough of his House Republicans dilly-dallying around. So he took to his social media platform, Truth Social, and issued an order:

The Republicans in Congress, though well meaning, keep talking about an Impeachment 'Inquiry' on Crooked Joe Biden.Look, the guy got bribed, he paid people off, and he wouldn't give One Billion Dollars to Ukraine unless they 'got rid of the Prosecutor.' Biden is a Stone Cold Crook-You don't need a long INQUIRY to prove it, it's already proven. These lowlifes Impeached me TWICE (I WON!), and Indicted me FOUR TIMES - For NOTHING!Either IMPEACH the BUM, or fade into OBLIVION. THEY DID IT TO US!

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy heard him loud and clear.

On Tuesday, McCarthy announced that he was unilaterally ordering an impeachment inquiry into the president for his term as vice president nearly a decade ago. No one was surprised that McCarthy went back on his stated principle that an impeachment inquiry can only be launched with a full vote of the House or the still binding determination by Trump's Department of Justice which came to the same conclusion. He doesn't have the votes to launch a legitimate inquiry so this was the only thing he could do to stave off a temper tantrum from Trump and the Freedom Caucus. He was, as he has been since the day he took the speaker's gavel, just trying to get through the day. 

This particular day has been coming since November 2022 when the Republicans managed to eke out a very narrow victory in the House. The fact that their majority was much smaller than they expected did not daunt them any more than it daunted the House Republicans in 1998 when they unexpectedly lost seats as they pursued the impeachment of President Clinton. When Republicans want to impeach a president, they don't care what it costs. 

They have already established that in the months and months of investigations they've waged since they got their majority, there is no evidence to support an impeachment inquiry. Nonetheless, McCarthy laid out six specific allegations which sounded as though they are proven but they are nothing but innuendo about Hunter Biden's business about which the president has never been shown to have knowledge or involvement. And anyway, we know what this is all about, don't we?

Either IMPEACH the BUM, or fade into OBLIVION. THEY DID IT TO US!

This is payback as anyone with eyes can see. And Trump is no doubt thrilled that they are going after Biden for the same stale lie that got him impeached the first time. The so-called investigation revolves around the disproved nonsense about then Vice President Biden demanding the Ukrainians fire a prosecutor to help his son's business in Ukraine. The timeline doesn't line up any better now than it did when Trump was trying to sell it to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his "perfect phone call." Maybe he thinks that having an impeachment tying Biden to the case will prove him innocent of wrongdoing and lead to the "expungement" of his impeachment. (McCarthy has said that he's all for it even though expungement isn't a thing.)

But it has some other utility for the Republicans.

Trump instinctively projects his own shortcomings and problems on his enemies and then attacks them which is what he's doing with the "Biden Crime Family" thing. I don't know what specific psychology is at work, but it serves a tactical purpose for him and his allies by muddying the water and contributing to the widespread cynicism in American life that leads people to think everyone is corrupt and there's nothing to be done about it. 

It's already worked to some degree in this case. According to a recent CNN poll, "61% say they think that Biden had at least some involvement in Hunter Biden's business dealings, with 42% saying they think he acted illegally, and 18% saying that his actions were unethical but not illegal." 

There is literally no evidence of any of that. Well played, Republicans, well played.

McCarthy also got the impeachment inquiry demand off the table to appease the extremists in his caucus but some of them don't seem to be appeased. Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz has been agitating for impeachment for months and threatened on Monday to make a motion to vacate the chair the next day, essentially calling for a no-confidence vote for McCarthy if the speaker didn't step up. After McCarthy did as he asked, Gaetz still took to the floor and had this to say:

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1701633496953815386

You just can't please some people. In the meantime, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who has been filing impeachment papers against Biden since the first day of his presidency is angry that Gaetz is taking credit:

https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1701611682722930990

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Greene might have a point. She had dinner with Trump on Sunday and met with McCarthy on Monday so she may very well have brought McCarthy an offer he couldn't refuse from Mar-a-Lago. 

The truth is that there just aren't enough votes to impeach Biden in the House and there will never be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. They can draw this out over months to keep it in the headlines and hope that something shakes loose as it did when the Benghazi investigation turned up Hillary Clinton's personal email server. The media will be paying very close attention out of a misplaced belief that they must treat this sideshow with the same seriousness they treated the Trump impeachments. 

Conventional wisdom has it that McCarthy is terrified of losing his job so he's dancing as fast as he can to please the crazies and the normies as well as their Dear Leader. But hard-right Colorado Rep. Ken Buck, a vocal and unexpected opponent of opening the impeachment inquiry (and he's taking some heat for it) isn't intimidated by Gaetz and his crew because he doesn't think McCarthy has anything to worry about. He told CNN's Anderson Cooper that all this ostentatious talk of "leverage" isn't going to dislodge the speaker because there's no one else who wants McCarthy's job. 

Normally I would think that's ridiculous. There are always ambitious politicians. But I think Buck has a point. There is no one stupid enough to want the job who could also be elected. We already know that from the night of the endless speaker votes last winter. Right now, it's the worst job in the world and that means McCarthy has a freer hand than it appears. Maybe that threat Gaetz and his pals are holding over McCarthy's head is just another act in the ongoing performance art installation otherwise known as the House Republican caucus.