"Worst idea since Sarah Palin": Democrat Dean Phillips' Biden challenge could "blow up in his face"

Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., is launching a bid for the Oval Office Friday, a longshot move that some of his colleagues deemed a vanity project and other top Democrats privately describe as a mid-life crisis, Politico reports. His new candidacy, though not likely to present much of a genuine challenge to incumbent President Joe Biden, also represents the undercurrent of discontent with the current president among Democratic voters.

In private conversations, the millionaire businessman has emphasized that voters need an alternative to the 80-year-old president. A half-dozen sources who have spoken directly to Phillips told Politico that while he has described feeling a sort of obligation to Biden, he has also voiced concern about the president's ability to defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. The Minnesota Democrat is "seeing a problem that everyone sees, but no one is talking about," one of the sources told the outlet, describing Phillips as "frustrated" by it all.

"He was really earnest in his presentation of it. He framed it as this revelation he had when he was in Vietnam, visiting the site of his father’s death,” another source who spoke to Phillips said, referring to the trip the congressman took last spring to the site where his father was killed during the Vietnam War. “But I don’t think he understands the institutional forces that he is going to be up against and how — even if a lot of Democrats privately share some of his fears — no one is going to line up behind him.”

At first, Phillips told the sources that he wanted to publicly recruit another candidate, calling in August for a "moderate governor" to step up to the plate. "I thought there was a way for him to raise this concern, identify if there was space for another candidate, get someone else in, and then gracefully bow out and resume being a member of Congress,” a third source who spoke to Phillips directly told Politico.

“Now, I feel like he missed the window to land this plane,” that person added.

Phillips instead made the decision to run himself and formally filed paperwork for "Dean 24, Inc." to the Federal Elections Commission Thursday night. Several people told the outlet that the centrist Democrat's campaign will likely resemble his 2018 run for Congress.

That bid saw Phillips disregarding much of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's guidance in favor of relying on his longstanding background in marketing. He drove a 1960 International Harvester milk truck to 32 cities and towns across his suburban House district, arguing for spending less on TV than on digital ads and refusing to take digs at his Republican opponent. While that approach enraged many a Democrat in D.C., Phillips won anyway, flipping a seat that hadn't elected a Democrat in decades. 

Signs of Phillips bringing back his strategy have appeared in the form of a "Dean Phillips for President" bus, seen recently driving about New Hampshire by two operatives, tagged with his 2018 slogan "Everyone's invited." The "government repair truck" he used in 2018 has also been repainted with "Dean Phillips for President." 

“He wants to scale his 2018 campaign to New Hampshire, if not to the national level,” one of the sources told the outlet.

A presidential primary, however, is far from a congressional race, especially when facing off against an incumbent. Plus, Phillips will likely face a number of clear and serious hurdles as he embarks on his campaign. 

The Minnesota Democrat has already failed to get on the ballot in Nevada, the second presidential nominating state, and is counting on a former Republican operative to lead it. He's also almost completely unknown in New Hampshire, the place he plans to base his campaign, as evidenced by his needing to introduce himself to the state party chair two weeks ago. To top it all off, his primary opponent, Biden, boasts $91 million in campaign cash and has the entire party's campaign machine backing him.

Though the Biden campaign is not expected to engage much with Phillips, a source familiar with the campaign's thinking told Politico the extent to which they do would involve painting the Minnesota lawmaker as wealthy and out-of-touch, while highlighting his 100 percent voting record with the president.

“Everyone I know, to a person, is mystified, perplexed and frustrated by this move, and Dean has not really offered any public explanation,” Jeff Blodgett, a top Minnesota Democratic operative and donor adviser, told the outlet. “People here are all in on Biden and focused on the work to get him reelected.”

Phillips has recruited Steve Schmidt, a top campaign strategist for Sen. John McCain's 2008 bid for president, to assist him, a move several Democrats dubbed a "red flag." In 2020 Schmidt also advised former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who considered an Independent presidential run. Phillips has also added Ondine Fortune as a media buyer to the mix, while a firm headed by Bill Fletcher, a Tennessee-based ad-maker, has secured permits for the Democrat's Friday event.

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Phillips' New Hampshire-focused campaign comes in the midst of an especially contentious time for Democrats in the state, who lost their first-in-the-nation primary status for the 2024 election cycle earlier this month. With Biden's support, the Democratic National Committee reordered the presidential nominating calendar last year, pushing South Carolina into the top spot. 

But the millionaire lawmaker has yet to reach out to South Carolina Democrats, a sign "he's not serious," South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain said, dubbing Phillips "a distraction" because "any serious Democratic candidate would understand that Black voters in South Carolina have been the backbone of the Democratic Party.” The state's presidential filing deadline closes on Nov. 10.

In the meantime, New Hampshire intends to run an unsanctioned contest, which is unlikely to produce any delegates for whoever wins the state in January. This week, the Biden campaign confirmed that the president's name will not appear on the ballot. Top Democrats in the state, however, are expected to lead a write-in effort on his behalf. Marianne Williamson, who ran for president in 2020, will also be on the state's ballot. 

The tumult over the calendar is a factor for former New Hampshire House Speaker Steve Shurtleff, who told Politico he "hopes" Phillips runs "because of the way things have been lined up by the DNC," who are “trying to take it out of the hands of the people.”

“I’ve got respect for Phillips that he may decide to get in the race, knowing what the price he might pay,” Shurtleff added. “By challenging the president, for someone like Dean, it could be the end of his political career.”

That uncertainty about Phillips' future is still occupying the minds of Minnesota Democrats, many of whom said they expected him to run for statewide office one day. Democrats instead are vying for his seat in the House, where he's already drawn a primary challenger in Ron Harris, a DNC executive committee member. 

“I believe every other Democratic member of Congress in Minnesota is supporting Biden, so it doesn’t help when your home team is on board with the incumbent president, while you’re trying to mount a challenge,” Mike Erlandson, a former chair of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, told the outlet. “I don’t know that the congressman is particularly concerned one way or the other about what other people in political places of power think, though this probably doesn’t help him with a statewide office run at home.”

Political pundits echoed the Minnesota Democrats' concerns about Phillips' bid.

"Dean Phillips is the worst idea in American campaigns since Sarah Palin," tweeted former Republican strategist and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson. 

During a Friday appearance on CNN, contributor Errol Louis argued that Phillips' concern over polls showing Biden to be unpopular and, thus, the potential of Trump winning next year won't bode well for the Minnesotan.  

"That comment about [Biden's polling] numbers is going to blow up in his face when we start looking at numbers that show people don't know who he is, what he stands for or why they should vote for him. Numbers cut both ways," Louis said. "Fifty-plus years in politics and national leadership by Joe Biden counts for a lot. It does mean something, and it will play out in the numbers."

"The fact that he's polling — the fact that he's got this tough question about his age and whether or not people think that's disqualifying for the president? Absolutely valid questions," Louis continued. "Is [Phillips] the right person — the right messenger — to bring it forward? It's hard to see how."