"Drill, baby, drill": Trump's plan to curb food inflation? He doesn't seem to have one

On Super Tuesday, the results which made the seemingly inevitable November rematch between former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden all but official, Trump called into Fox News and was asked how he would tackle sustained food inflation in America. 

"Mr. President, a lot of people believe that you're at your best when you're fighting for the American people, and we just heard in the diner, we heard immigration as the other top issue with the economy. " Fox and Friends co-host Lawrence Jones said, referencing an earlier segment in which Texas diner customers were interviewed about their political concerns. “What are you going to do to give us some relief when it comes to this inflation? People go into the, you know, whether it's the gas station or to the grocery store and they're being hit hard. How do you fix that in the first 100 days?"

"Well, first of all, let me speak to the people in the diner," Trump replied. "I saw the vote, and it was 100% Trump. None for my opponent. And I love you in the diner. I will take care of you and we're gonna drill, baby, drill and we're gonna get prices down, energy's going to bring it all down."

Trump continued: “We’re gonna get a lot of that oil, are going to get the oil and gas right from Texas and other places, but from Texas largely, and I just appreciate it.” 

If you’re unclear as to how drilling for more oil in Texas will impact the price of bread and eggs, you’re not alone; as David Badash pointed out in a report for RawStory, Trump's claim  “appears to ignore that right now, the U.S. is producing more oil than at any time in our history.” This also isn’t the first time Trump has quoted Michael Steele’s now-infamous campaign slogan in response to inquiries regarding his plans to bring down grocery bills. At a January campaign rally in Las Vegas, Trump said: 

His inflation that he [Biden] caused and would’ve been so easy not to. All it was — is energy. Remember this, gasoline, fuel, oil, natural gas went up to a level that it was impossible. … That’s what caused inflation, and we’re going to bring it down because we’re going to go drill, baby, drill. We drill, baby, drill. We’re bringing it way down.

Yet despite griping about “Bidenomics” as a key part of his campaign strategy, when it comes to Trump’s actual plan for curbing food inflation — an issue that becomes more pressing as new reports indicate that Americans are spending the biggest share of their income on food in three decades  — his lack of a response doesn’t inspire much confidence that he actually has one. 

Pulling back for a minute, it’s important to understand what we do (and don’t) know about why food prices are so steep right now, despite the fact that general inflation has slowed, unemployment is decreasing and wages are rising. 

As reported by the Washington Post in February, grocery prices have jumped 25% over the past four years, as opposed to overall inflation rising 19% during the same period. “While prices of appliances, smartphones and a smattering of other goods have declined, groceries got slightly more expensive last year, with particularly sharp jumps for beef, sugar and juice, among other items,” they write. 

The report continues: “Prices remain elevated [at the supermarket] due to a mixture of labor shortages tied to the pandemic, ongoing supply chain disruptions, droughts, avian flu and other factors far beyond the administration’s control. Robust consumer demand has also fueled a shift to more expensive groceries, and consolidation in the industry gives large chains the ability to keep prices high, economic policy experts say."

In establishing how Trump will actually deal with inflation while in office, it’s important to consider how his first presidency impacted food prices. 

Perhaps the most significant decision he made in that regard was in levying billions of dollars in tariffs against several countries, including China. The country then struck back with its own set of retaliatory tariffs and other nations followed suit. 

As reported by CNBC, Trump’s trade war with China “cost Americans an estimated $195 billion since 2018, according to the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank. The economic battle also led to the loss of more than 245,000 U.S. jobs, according to the U.S.-China Business Council.” Experts say the impact of this is still being felt in the U.S. agricultural industry and could impact future production, further raising food prices.

The impacts of the original tariffs were felt by consumers quickly. When interviewed by the network in 2018, just a few weeks after they went into effect, Matt Gold, a former deputy assistant U.S. Trade Representative for North America under former President Barack Obama, told CNBC that, “Absolutely, you’re going to see higher prices passed on to consumers — almost immediately.”

To be clear, Biden’s record on tackling food inflation hasn’t been immaculate; experts have agreed that his Inflation Reduction Act didn’t really aid in reducing inflation as much as it provided incentives for lowering energy and health care costs for families, thereby helping to bring down the deficit. “I wish I hadn’t called it that because it has less to do with reducing inflation than it has to do with providing alternatives that generate economic growth,” Biden said at a Utah fundraiser in 2023, adding that he still believes that with the law “we’re literally reducing the cost of people being able to meet their basic needs.”

However, his messaging around food prices has sharpened with recent calls to do away with “shrinkflation” and, as argued by the writers of the New York Times’ DealBook newsletter, the Federal Trade Commission's new suit intended to block the mega-merger of Kroger and Albertsons — the country’s two biggest grocery companies — could actually bolster Biden’s argument that he’s fighting inflation. Many consumers and labor groups have expressed concern that a partnership between the two companies would drastically reduce competition leading to skyrocketing prices. 

“The agency operates independently, but Lina Khan, the F.T.C.’s chair, has taken the most aggressive and expansive antitrust enforcement stance in decades,” The Times reported. “That may help Biden’s message with voters that he’s fighting for their interests.” 

Meanwhile, what Trump’s messaging lacks in substance, it makes up for in consistency. 

Trump has promised to intensify tariffs if he is reelected. In an interview on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures" with host Maria Bartiromo in February, he confirmed that he is considering a plan to impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in his potential second term. “Maybe it’s going to be more than that,” he said.