President Joe Biden hoped that a strong debate showing against Donald Trump would reset his struggling campaign, but a new poll shows that he is going in the wrong direction thanks to a disastrous performance and a subsequent news cycle that baked in the image of a tired, mumbling old man.
Provided exclusively to Salon, the latest survey by Democratic pollsters BSG found that it doesn't matter where voters get their news: more than 7 in 10 of those polled said they heard Trump won the debate. And while respondents choose Trump over Biden by a mere 46% to 45% if the election were held immediately, overall, Trump rockets to a 51% to 46% lead among those who said they watched the full debate, rather than just clips, with Biden enjoying a 3% lead only among those didn't tune in, which is within the poll's 4.3% margin of error.
"The news cycle coming out of the debate on Thursday night has repeated and described President Biden's performance as not meeting expectations and being stumbling and problematic and raising concerns about his readiness for office," BSG Managing Director Mike Kulisheck told Salon. "And that narrative that has been repeated and broadcasted and discussed over the past four days has resulted in a broader perception that Biden lost the debate relative to Trump has begun to raise concerns about his broader candidacy among voters."
The poll is the second conducted by BSG since the debate. The first, published by Salon on Monday, found that 6 in 10 likely voters now doubt that Biden could complete a second term in office. BSG has provided campaign advice for several Democratic politicians, including former President Barack Obama.
In the latest poll of 802 likely voters, 45% of whom watched all or part of the debate, there is an unmistakable shift in Donald Trump's direction, with 10% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for him now, compared to 18% who are less likely to vote for Biden. That's roughly in line with the previous poll, which surveyed only those who watched the debate live.
Three-quarters of the respondents in the latest poll said that Trump won the debate, compared to 63% in the first poll. Biden did improve in some metrics — he was seen as more truthful by 20 points compared to 16 previously — but the effect of subsequent coverage and re-posted clips has clearly hurt him.
Other polls, including leaked internals, show a more precipitous decline for Biden, particularly in swing states, as well as states that were considered relatively safe for Democrats. Either way, lagging behind Trump by any margin falls well short of Democratic hopes that Biden would use the debate to pull ahead of his rival, and has raised urgent questions within the party over his continued viability as candidate. Reports have emerged that Obama has privately expressed concern that time is running out for his former vice president.
Trump's campaign and right-wing media continue to highlight Biden's debate performance in their ads, hoping to press home the impression that he is incapable of leading the country with any semblance of energy.
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"The data is worrying for Democrats," Kulisheck told Salon, "but Biden still has opportunities to show another side of his campaign, beginning with the ABC interview this week, followed by more appearances, and then the convention in August and the second debate in September." He continued: "What is critically important is for the Biden campaign to show voters a President Biden who is strong, capable and ready to be elected to a second term."
The Biden campaign appears to be gambling on their candidate's ability to do just that, even as a growing chorus of Democrats say that keeping him on the ticket is a dangerous risk to take as Trump appears ever closer to the White House, plans to reshape the federal government in tow.
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