Marist poll gives Biden slight lead over Trump in national race

While the findings may boost Biden's case for staying in the race, other polls suggest he'd lose every swing state

By Nandika Chatterjee

News Fellow

Published July 12, 2024 1:09PM (EDT)

U.S. President Joe Biden holds news conference at the 2024 NATO Summit on July 11, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
U.S. President Joe Biden holds news conference at the 2024 NATO Summit on July 11, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Amidst calls for Joe Biden to step down from the 2024 presidential election, the latest Marist College poll shows that the Democrat has held his own against Donald Trump, despite worries about his cognitive health. 

The margin is within the margin of error, but it is Biden’s favor: 50% of registered voters said they would support the president, while 48% said they would vote for Trump. Still, 59% think Trump will win the election, PBS reported.

The last Marist poll, in June, found the two candidates tied at 49% a piece.

“We have a race that didn’t change much,” political analyst Amy Walter told PBS. “If you’re Biden, this poll suggests you’re in fine shape to continue.”

According to the survey, about two-thirds of Americans don’t think Biden is mentally fit. At the same time, a majority of Americans also don’t think Trump has the right character to serve as president — while Biden does.

“Based on this survey, what’s most important is the actual vote hasn’t changed since the debate, but there’s a crisis of confidence among Democrats that the president needs to address,” Navin Nayak, president of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, told PBS News.

However, other polls do provide reason for concern. Trump leads Biden 47% to 45% in an average of recent national polls, according to The New York Times, and trails in each battleground state. If those numbers hold in November, Democrats would be looking at a landslide defeat in the Electoral College.


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