The election is two months away and could come down to Pennsylvania, where recent polls indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying increased support from young voters and people of color following her debate with former President Donald Trump. According to a Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday, Harris has now taken a 4-point lead in the commonwealth.
The survey, conducted Sept. 11-16, shows Harris beating Trump 50% to 46%. It comes after Harris enjoyed a week of positive news coverage following the Sept. 10 debate, which even some Republicans deemed "disastrous" for the Trump campaign.
The same poll did not find Harris leading in the national race, however, suggesting she is tied with the Republican candidate at 47% a piece. Other recent polls have shown her with a modest lead, reflected in a 2.8% advantage in the 538 average of national surveys.
Another poll released Thursday by Marist College shows the race in Pennsylvania also tied at 49% each. That poll found that Trump (49%) has a slight advantage over Harris (45%) among independents who are likely to vote, roughly tracking with his performance in 2020 (44%), when he lost the state to President Joe Biden; Harris is underperforming within this voting group compared to Biden (52%). Trump (54%) also outpaces Harris among Pennsylvania voters who say they will vote in person, while Harris (68%) received a large majority of support among those who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
A poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, meanwhile, is closer to the Inquirer/Times/Siena findings, suggesting Harris is leading in Pennsylvania by 6 points, 51% to 45%. The same poll found Harris leading in Michigan 50% to 45% and in Wisconsin by 48% to 47%.
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