ANALYSIS

Abortion could tilt swing states like Pennsylvania for Democrats, experts say

The fight for abortion rights is mobilizing voters in Pennsylvania, which could have consequences nationwide

By Nicole Karlis

Senior Writer
Published October 31, 2024 5:30AM (EDT)
Updated November 2, 2024 12:03AM (EDT)
Abortion rights protestors rally on July 4, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Hannah Beier/Getty Images)
Abortion rights protestors rally on July 4, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Hannah Beier/Getty Images)

Abortion isn’t technically on the ballot in Pennsylvania this November, but it’s an issue Democrats are still hoping will help them win the election in this important swing state. Elizabeth Moro, the Democrat candidate vying for a seat in the state’s 160th house district, told Salon she’s had interactions with over 10,000 voters and abortion is a “huge issue.”  

“I have had women when I'm at the door, kind of hold my hand and say, ‘Tell me we're going to be okay,’” Moro said in a phone interview with Salon. “It’s not only just on the national front, where we're we're dealing with the possibility of a total abortion ban, but in the state of Pennsylvania, we are one vote away.” 

Pennsylvania’s state house legislature leans very narrowly Democrat while Republicans control a majority of the state senate. If Democrats lose control of the house during this election, they fear state Republicans will continue to advance an anti-abortion agenda. In 2022, Republicans in Pennsylvania’s state Senate tried to rush an amendment to the state constitution saying that it did not guarantee rights related to abortion. As it stands, Pennsylvania allows abortion up to 24 weeks of gestation, or later if there is a medical emergency that necessitates pregnancy termination. Still, many people worry what a Republican-controlled Pennsylvania would mean for reproductive rights. 

“If we lose control of the House, and the Republicans control both the Senate and the House, they may try to do what they tried to do last time they had total control,” Moro explained. “Doctors have come out to canvass, and do door knocks with my campaign, because they know that I will support them because this affects the doctor's ability to do good health care.” 

However, it might not just be the future of reproductive rights in Pennsylvania that hinges on this election, but the future of reproductive rights throughout the United States in general. Political analysts say the next presidential candidate will need the state of Pennsylvania’s votes to take the White House, which has made the Quaker State a key focus of this presidential race.

"Concern for reproductive rights does not have the same level of partisan strife that you see with other issues."

As Salon has previously reported, the Republican Party’s 16-page “Make America Great Again” policy platform essentially paves the way for a national abortion ban suggesting to establish fetal personhood through the constitution’s 14th Amendment. Despite former President Donald Trump stating he would veto a national abortion ban, pro-abortion advocates continue to warn that a Trump presidency would spell doom and chaos for access to abortion nationwide, in vitro fertilization (IVF), and birth control.

Madeline Zann, executive director of the House Democratic Campaign Committee (HDCC), told Salon voters in Pennsylvania are like many voters across the country: “They are extremely worried about reproductive rights in the wake of the Dobbs decision,” Zann said, referring to the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade. “Voters care about local and state-level races as much as the presidential candidates because they recognize that politics is local and that change is most often made in these lower seats.” 

The 160th District, where Moro is campaigning, is seen by both political parties as a competitive race. Incumbent Republican state Representative Craig Williams, who is running for the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania Attorney General, Moro’s opponent, does not have a pro-abortion voting record. In 2021, Williams voted yes on a measure that would require a funeral or cremation of abortion remains. He voted no to establish a state constitutional right to taxpayer-funded abortions. He has referred to himself as a “pro-life” candidate and recently called protecting access to reproductive rights a “gray area.” Salon reached out to Wililams’ campaign for comment, but did not receive a response.


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Such stances are at odds with what polls suggest most voters want. Most recently, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll found that two-thirds of Americans oppose potential national bans on abortion and IVF. The poll found considerable support for policies that would codify reproductive rights and protect women and healthcare providers. While people surveyed cited the economy as the central issue for this election, reproductive rights were in the top five.

“These survey findings reaffirm what we have known since the Supreme Court’s harmful decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization – women want the freedom to make personal health care decisions without government interference,” Celina Stewart, CEO of the League of Women Voters, said in a statement. “Women reject policies that strip away their constitutional rights and undermine their equity in our democracy.”

Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, told Salon that abortion is an issue that mobilizes female voters. 

"I've had conversations with women across the political spectrum who I think have seen the real-life consequences of the Dobbs decision."

“And the interesting thing about this issue is that concern for reproductive rights does not have the same level of partisan strife that you see with other issues,” Nteta said, using Kansas as an example, where voters decided to keep abortion legal in the state. “That could only pass with the support of historically Republican identifiers and those who have voted for Trump.”

Others have expressed similar views: Abortion is overall a nonparistan issue and therefore, it could have a remarkable outcome on swing states. If people are voting based on their concern for the future of reproductive rights, they're likely going to be voting for Democrats in the race, Nteta said. 

Hadley Haas, the Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania House District 44, has had a similar experience to Moro while speaking with voters. Notably, where she’s running is a purple district with many Catholic and Christian voters, Haas told Salon in a phone interview. Some people, she said, when they see she’s been endorsed by Planned Parenthood politely decline a conversation. But others show interest. 

“I've had conversations with women across the political spectrum who I think have seen the real-life consequences of the Dobbs decision,” Haas told Salon. “They have real concerns about going back; I've talked to women on the doorsteps in the underserved parts of my district who glance at their young daughters and worry about the choices that they.”

She has even heard from a Republican woman who revealed she had an abortion. The issue of abortion for voters, Haas said, “crosses party lines.”

“The majority of the doors that are slammed on my face, or the people who tell me to get off their doorsteps and cite abortion, is the reason the majority of those folks do identify as Republicans,” Haas said. “But I’ve also heard from Republican women who are supporting Democrats specifically for this reason.” 

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Haas is running against Republican Rep. Valerie Gaydos who has called herself “pro-life.” Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee president Heather Williams told Salon she thinks women are going to show up in this election and rally around the issue of abortion — even in states like Pennsylvania. Gaydos states she believes abortion should be "rare," but believes in exceptions for rape and incest. She "fully supports" a constitutional amendment to allow citizens "to set abortion law, not elected politicians," she told Salon in an emailed statement.

“Abortion is arguably not being taken away in that state, because Democrats have enough power to stop it,” Williams said. “But make no mistake, you put Republicans in control in that state, and the rollbacks start happening immediately.”

Abortion, Williams said, “is on the ballot everywhere.”

“The Dobbs decision, and then Republicans’ immediate response to that, I think, really clarified for so many people what this was actually about,” Williams said. “It was never just about that choice to have a family, it was about controlling women, and it was about removing decisions from them across a whole host of different places in their lives.”

This, Williams said, has given voters “a continued sense of urgency” around codifying abortion rights in state constitutions, and electing state officials who will support the right to contraception, IVF and health care for women.

UPDATED: This article has been updated to include comments from Rep. Valerie Gaydos.


By Nicole Karlis

Nicole Karlis is a senior writer at Salon, specializing in health and science. Tweet her @nicolekarlis.

MORE FROM Nicole Karlis


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