As polls close, tight Ohio Senate race holds the key to Democrats' Senate majority

COLUMBUS, Ohio — As polls closed in Ohio, hundreds of Democratic voters and elected officials filtered into the dimly lit ballroom of the Hyatt Regency in downtown Columbus for the Ohio Democratic Party’s election night watch party. Congresswoman Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, took to the stage a few minutes before 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday to welcome attendees to the event, which was hosted, in part, by the campaign for Sen. Sherrod Brown. 

“Tonight, as Democrats, we will show America how much we value the dignity of work — and tonight, Sherrod Brown will be re-elected to the United States Senate,” said Beatty, referencing Brown’s tagline. 

As the crowd erupted in cheers and applause, Beatty, who won her re-election bid in Ohio’s 3rd congressional district, also extended an aspirational welcome to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her fellow congressional Ohio incumbents seeking re-election. She also thanked Ohio women and labor representatives for their support.

“If this isn’t a hell of a welcome, I don’t know what is,” she said. “I love Ohio up and down, and I love you because you stand up for us, you understand the value of work, the value of families, the value of education and the value of not only making Americans have the opportunity to get by, but to thrive.” 

With over 20% of Ohio’s 8,878 Election Day precincts having reported results as of 9:15 p.m., Trump-backed challenger Bernie Moreno has a nearly 3-point lead over Brown, per the Ohio Secretary of State. 

The Cleveland businessman is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Brown, who’s seeking a fourth term. The Cook Political Report has rated the contest a toss-up for weeks, with recent polls showing razor-thin leads for both candidates that fall within the roughly 3% margin of error.

Attendees stood on the floor or in the balcony, bathed in blue lighting, watching MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki provide election night analysis on two wide screens flanking the speakers’ podium at the front of the room.

While pop hits blasted from the event speakers, an undercurrent of tension hung in the air. Boisterous cheers erupted with each blue win announced, while a Democratic Party clip criticizing GOP political newcomer Bernie Moreno was met with resounding boos.

Polls closed in Ohio at 7:30 p.m., beginning the tense wait for results in the 2024 election. While the Buckeye State is no longer a swing state or presidential bellwether — voters chose Trump by a wide margin in 2016 and 2020 — its contentious Senate race will be key to the Democrats' fight to retain their majority in the upper chamber.

As of Tuesday afternoon, polling averages showed Moreno had taken a marginal lead in the race. Moreno led by just 0.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but left a wider trail of 1.7 points and 2 points in the RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ averages, respectively. However, the RacetotheWH polling average placed Brown just ahead of Moreno by 0.4 points. 

In the campaigns’ final week, Trump-backed Moreno toured the state in a bright red bus joined by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Fox Host Tucker Carlson and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. At stops, Moreno called for the deportation of undocumented immigrants and defended himself against lawsuits from former employees that accused him of failing to pay overtime, according to The Columbus Dispatch. 

Progressive Brown spent the end of his campaign courting Black voters in Columbus and visiting a union hall in Akron, amid other events throughout the state. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., and former president Bill Clinton also stumped for their party’s candidate at rallies in downtown Mount Vernon and Cleveland, respectively. 

Meanwhile, Ohioans fielded a final barrage of attack ads accusing Brown of being too liberal for Ohio, criticizing Moreno for his stance on abortion and occasionally spreading misinformation in what has become the nation’s most expensive congressional race.

Democrats’ bid to maintain control of the Senate hinges on Brown’s ability to retain his seat. With additional toss-up races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—and a possible loss in Montana —the party is at a disadvantage. If Democrats hold onto 50 Senate seats as they do now, they would also need a win from Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who as vice president would serve as the deciding 51st Senate vote, to claim the majority.

Early voting in Ohio ended Sunday after starting Oct. 8, with approximately a third of the state’s 8.1 million registered voters casting an early ballot either in-person or by mail, according to data from the Secretary of State. Secretary of State Frank LaRose told the Ohio Statehouse News Bureau that the state could be on track to surpass its voter turnout record if Election Day turnout is high.