GARDEN CITY, N.Y. — Democrats flipped their first seat late Tuesday as John Mannion unseated Rep. Brandon Williams in New York's 22nd District in a battle for control of the House of Representatives. Early Wednesday morning, the balance of power in the lower chamber was yet to be determined.
New York and California were expected to play a pivotal role with at least 13 competitive House races between the two states. But the catch is that both states could be slow to report final results, especially in close races.
In New York, at least six House races appeared highly competitive in the state's 1st and 4th Districts on Long Island, as well as in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Districts upstate.
Democrats were looking to retake seats they lost in 2022, and they dedicated significant resources and the attention of party leadership, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., barnstorming the state last week.
Republicans aimed to hold onto gains they posted in 2022, a challenge given New York's Democratic tilt and the high turnout environment of a presidential election. They have, however, increased their support relative to previous election cycles, especially in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., spent some of his final days on the campaign trail in the Empire State, looking to boost candidates in some of the most competitive races.
A few hours after polls closed in the 18th District, Rep. Pat Ryan, the sole swing district Democrat to hold on in 2022, fended off Republican challenger Alison Esposito.
In New York's 1st District, GOP Rep. Nick LaLota retained his Long Island seat against a challenge from John Avlon, a Democrat. In the 4th District, also on Long Island, GOP Rep. Anthony D'Esposito was in a tight race against Democrat Laura Gillen in a rematch of their 2022 battle.
At the Nassau County Democrats election night watch party, the crowd seemed anxious yet optimistic as presidential election results rolled in. The mood soured when the swing state of North Carolina was called for former President Donald Trump.
The crowd rejoiced, however, when Rep. Tom Suozzi took the stage fresh off a win in the 3rd District. Gillen also spoke, thanking the crowd for electing her as their next representative. Though the race had not yet been called, Gillen maintained a lead with 98% of the vote reporting and the results trending in her direction.
Suozzi and Gillen thanked organized labor and other constituencies for their support. Suozzi said he was "sick and tired of the extremism," potentially a nod to the looming presidential results and the prospect of divided government. Labor leaders at the event expressed concern at a potential second Trump administration.
A singer closing out the lineup belted a chorus ending with "We're not going back," a reference to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign and one that hung in the air as the crowd continued to thin and the media filed out.
On his way out of the venue, attendee Dan Gerous told Salon that "If nights like this get you discouraged, it's not the business for you."
"You know that nights like tonight make the coalition stronger," Gerous said. "They make them more motivated and we're in it for the long game."
Staffers said they felt good about the campaigns they worked on but declined to comment on the national election. It was clear the Democrats at the event had mixed feelings but were happy to have turned back Republican advances, at least on Long Island.
Upstate, in New York's 17th District, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Democrat, sought to stage a political comeback against Rep. Mike Lawler, the incumbent Republican. After midnight on Wednesday, Lawler led with 75% of the vote counted.
In New York's sprawling 19th District, GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley were in a rematch in one of the closest races in the country. Riley led in the 19th after midnight, with 97% of the vote counted.
Other bellwethers around the country — Virginia's 7th and 2nd Districts as well as in North Carolina's 1st — were up in the air early Wednesday, suggesting that it could take days or potentially longer to determine which party would control the House.
In California, Democrats were pushing to retake five seats they have lost to Republicans since 2020 — four in 2020 and another in 2022 — which could prove decisive for control of the House.
California and New York alone could determine which party leads the lower chamber, though there is a scattered collection of swing districts outside the two states.
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While statewide races in New York are typically called fairly early in the night, sometimes just shortly after polls close at 9 p.m. local time, officials this year declined to specify when they expect full results.
New York also accepts mail ballots as late as a week after Election Day, so long as they are postmarked by Election Day. This means that the statewide Senate and presidential elections will likely be called early in the night, but the marquee House races could take days or even a week or so to call.
California is known for its lengthy ballot-counting procedure, and it could take days or weeks to learn who won close House races or control of the House.
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