Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., has won re-election to a third term, holding a crucial seat for Democrats in a state that cast its lot with President-elect Donald Trump for a second time.
With more than 99% of votes reporting, according to the Associated Press, she appears to have beaten her GOP opponent, businessman Eric Hovde, by just under 1 point, 49.4% to 48.5%. In doing so, she slightly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris, who earned 48.9% of the vote to Trump's 49.7%.
The AP declared Baldwin the winner Wednesday afternoon.
“It is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” Baldwin said in a statement. “The people of Wisconsin have chosen someone who always puts Wisconsin first, someone who shows up, listens, and works with everyone to get the job done."
While Republicans are projected to gain control of the Senate with at least 52 and possibly as many as 54 seats in the next Congress, Baldwin's narrow victory helps position Democrats for taking back the majority in 2026. That's the year potentially vulnerable Republicans and open seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Kentucky are up for election; in 2028, Democrats will also be itching to defeat Wisconsin's other senator, right-wing firebrand Ron Johnson.
Throughout the campaign, Baldwin tarred her GOP rival as an out-of-touch wealthy businessman, while Hovde blasted the incumbent senator as a Washington creature who was too permissive on issues like immigration and transgender rights. Towards the end of the race, Republican ads raised innuendoes about Baldwin's relationship with her long-term partner and financial advisor, claiming it was a conflict of interest and that she was "in bed with Wall Street."
The $20 million that Hovde poured into the race from his own pockets, out of the $29.5 million he raised in total, paled in comparison to Baldwin's record $52.3 million haul. Much of the latter was spent on ads hammering Hovde over past statements, like suggesting that nursing home residents shouldn't vote and that he understood Black culture because of his foundation work in Africa.
Several of Baldwin’s ads ended with the question: “What is wrong with this guy?"
Negative ads drove both candidates' favorability ratings underwater and the polls tightened in the race's closing weeks. While Hovde maintained an early lead as ballots were counted across the state, wide margins for Baldwin in Milwaukee and Madison pushed her in front by early Wednesday morning.
The race is still close enough that Hovde has not yet conceded the race. If the margin between them is less than one percent — as it is right now — he can request a recount, though that no recount has yet reversed a statewide election in Wisconsin. Baldwin, opting not to wait for his call, declared in her statement that she was proud to "keep fighting" for Wisconsinites, and that they had rejected wealthy individuals and special interests who "want to come to our state, spread hate and division and buy their way into power."
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