Fearing another pandemic, people are prepping for bird flu. Should you?

For months, bird flu has been on Desiree’ Moffitt’s mind. The more she learns about the H5N1 virus, and the more updates that populate news headlines, the more alarmed she becomes. Unlike when COVID-19 spread across the globe and shut down businesses and cities — a time, she said, when she felt wildly unprepared — Moffitt is now taking steps to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic in the foreseeable future.

“I decided after that experience [COVID-19] I was not going to put myself in that same confused category again,” Moffitt, a 45-year-old mom of two in North Carolina, told Salon “So I've learned everything that I can —  and it's not just bird flu, it's any event that could happen at pretty much any time.”

This means when Moffitt is at the grocery store, she picks up extra gallons of water to store in case of an emergency. She has also started picking up extra food and putting it next to her water and extra toilet paper. She has a first aid kit, and water filtration set, and recently purchased a $3,000 freeze dryer. 

“I noticed that I started to feel really content with packaging my food, sticking them in the oxygen absorber, and then putting them in my bin,” Moffitt said. “I filled my first really big tote with oatmeal and different soups.” 

At the time of our conversation, she estimated that she had enough dry meals prepared for her family of five for at least one week. She told Salon she plans to keep making meals and stocking up on goods. Moffitt added that she and her family are backpackers and that the freeze dryer helps alleviate weight when they’re on their family backpack trips, too. 

“A part of me is a little bit embarrassed because it sounds extreme,” Moffitt said. “But the other part of me feels that that is such a practical evolution in my thinking.”

Moffitt is not the only one preparing for a just-in-case bird flu pandemic. On Reddit, there have been several discussions in the r/preppers channel concerning people anticipating for a bird flu pandemic. In these conversations, people swap tips, share what they’ve been doing to prepare, and share what they think will be most helpful in a bird flu pandemic. 

At the moment, most experts don’t believe a H5N1 pandemic is an immediate threat, it’s completely possible in the near future, especially as cases continue to rise. Unlike the once "novel" coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, H5N1 is nothing new and has been documented since the '90s. But in 2024, officials confirmed that the virus had jumped from birds to cows to humans, all while massacring millions of wild animals and tearing through dairy and poultry farms across the country.

Any time a virus jumps from one species to another, it runs the risk of mutating to become more primed for human-to-human transmission, which is why it's so concerning when the virus jumped to pigs for the first time on record last year. Humans and pigs share many biological traits that can amplify the spread and evolution of viruses — with swine flu (H1N1) being the prime example.

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According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there have been a record 66 human cases of bird flu since spring. Out of those cases, two sources of exposure remain unknown — the rest have been traced to farm animals or wild birds. Only two of these cases have been severe, resulting in one death that was announced Monday.

In the U.S., there haven't been any known cases of human-to-human transmission, a key factor of what makes a pandemic a global crisis. While human infections have occurred in other countries, these cases didn't spread beyond close contacts. According to the CDC, the total fatality rate of people who have been infected with H5N1 is estimated to be more than 50 percent, though the true case fatality rate is hard to know without more testing.

“While the current public health risk remains low, the potential severity of an H5N1 pandemic urges us to stay vigilant,” Dr. Rajendram Rajnarayanan of the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., told Salon, adding that the current situation is “akin to stepping on a land mine."

“We already have stepped on it,” Rajnarayanan said. “Our early response is not on par for the course, both at local and at federal level.” He said “stepping up monitoring and preparedness” is needed to avoid “triggering the land mine into a full-scale pandemic.”

As mentioned, this week, the Louisiana Department of Health reported that a patient with a severe case of bird flu died from their infection, a first for the United States. The deceased was over age 65 and was reported to have underlying medical conditions. The patient contracted H5N1 after exposure to a combination of a non-commercial backyard flock and wild birds. 

This first death "changes things a bit,” Rajnarayanan said, adding, “The available viral genomic sequence from the Louisiana patient did suggest virus trying to adapt intrahost.” 

Rajnarayanan was referring to a genetic analysis suggesting the virus mutated inside the patient to make it a more severe illness in humans.

Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Salon he doesn’t believe an H5N1 pandemic is “imminent or likely,” though predicts there will be avian influenza pandemics in the future. Still, he said that for individuals prepping, it depends on their own “risk tolerance.” 

“They can prepare to the degree that they feel comfortable with,” Adalja said. “Such preparations will also be useful for all hazards, such as a weather emergency.”

The idea of prepping might sound extreme to some, but it’s becoming more popular. According to a survey from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), more people are preparing by stocking up on supplies than in previous years. In 2022, only 33 percent of people surveyed said they were stocking up on supplies; in 2023, 48 percent did.

But not all public health experts support the idea of prepping for a pandemic that may never come.

“I don’t think this is wise, especially since there are quite a few people that need access to supplies, like masks and antivirals right now, given we are in the height of the seasonal flu season,” Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and author of the newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist, told Salon. “We don’t know if, or when, an H5N1 event will hit.”

For Frank, a 55-year-old based in Ohio, it’s not just about prepping for bird flu, but any event that could lead people to need extra supplies — like a natural disaster or power outage. He has what he refers to as a “deep pantry” of supplies, including three months' worth of toilet paper, solar batteries, and a generator.

“Power outages aren't necessarily specific to bird flu, but if bird flu comes around and the infrastructure shuts down for a while, I'm set for that as well as a winter storm,” Frank told Salon, requesting to use only his first name for privacy. “I've got extra ways to cook, extra ways to power the house, power the TV, and so all of those preps would all help, depending on what happens with bird flu.”