The Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law requiring TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell it to a non-Chinese company by Sunday or face a ban in the U.S.
But President Joe Biden doesn't plan to enforce the ban, set to take effect a day before he leaves office. That leaves TikTok's fate in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump, who once tried to ban the app but more recently has pledged to save it.
TikTok had argued the law violated free speech rights, but justices sided with the U.S. government, which said the law aims to regulate a foreign-owned app that can track and collect user data.
A flurry of activity to try to save TikTok, or at least delay its departure, preceded the ruling. The Chinese government reportedly considered selling the app's U.S. operations to billionaire Elon Musk as an option. A group formed by billionaire Frank McCourt and backed by investor Kevin O’Leary offered to buy the app, CNN reported.
Lawmakers in Congress debated delaying the ban, and Trump was mulling an executive order to save the app, The New York Times reported Thursday.
ByteDance has been reluctant to sell, and TikTokers have begun migrating to other apps.
What to expect
A TikTok ban means the app wouldn't be available to download on Google or Apple. Existing users would likely still be able to access it, but the app wouldn't be updated, eventually making it obsolete. TikTok users could see a pop-up window with a link to find more information on the ban, according to Reuters.
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Can Trump save TikTok?
Trump is exploring options to “preserve” TikTok, according to his incoming national security adviser, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz. He told Fox News the federal law that could ban TikTok by Sunday also “allows for an extension as long as a viable deal is on the table.”
Trump's embrace of TikTok is a turnaround from 2020, when he said it presented a national security risk and issued an executive order barring it. It was struck down by a judge who said he had overreached.
Trump changed his mind last year as he used the app to court younger voters. Late last year he asked the Supreme Court to delay a ban.
His reversal came after meeting with Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor who owns a significant share of ByteDance, media outlets reported. Trump has said they did not discuss the company, per The New York Times.
TikTok CEO Shou Chew has a front-row seat reserved at Trump’s inauguration, The New York Times reported.
Economic impact
A ban would affect more than 7 million Americans who use TikTok for business, according to the company. It estimates small businesses would miss out on more than $1 billion in revenue, while creators would lose $300 million per month.
"I expect to lose about six figures worth of income in one year from the brand partnerships I have on TikTok, the creator fund and the advertising income derived from TikTok users visiting my website," said Yumna Jawad, content creator at Feel Good Foodie who has 2.1 million followers.
"I expect to lose about six figures worth of income in one year from the brand partnerships I have on TikTok, the creator fund and the advertising income derived from TikTok users visiting my website"
"Fortunately, because I’m diversified with other social media platforms, my website, my cookbook and my product Oath, this will not affect my business or the dozen contractors I employ in my business," she said.
Why TikTok is key to success for creators
The algorithm. TikTok made it easier for creators to find their audience, thanks to its hyper-focused and specific algorithm. They said it helped them reach the masses and obtain a colossal number of views, while other apps fall short.
"What's gonna hurt TikTokers the most is losing the 'For You' page's power. Sure, every social network's got their own version of an interest-based algorithm now, but none have come close to TikTok. That algorithmic precision is why so many TikTokers saw major virality at times — their content always got to the right audience. That doesn't feel true of the other platforms, including Instagram," said Jack Appleby, social consultant and creator at Future Social.
"The algorithm of other platforms is not the same as TikTok's, so content that gets half a million
views on TikTok could struggle to break 1,000 views elsewhere," said Jen Ruiz, founder of Jen on a Jet Plane and a creator with 268,200 followers on TikTok.
More DIY, less aesthetics. TikTok democratized the creation process by focusing more on do-it-yourself content, creators said. "TikTok prioritized substance over aesthetics. Instagram is still all about aesthetics," Ruiz said.
"YouTube favors long-form content for monetization, which provides barriers to entry in regards to editing required, time to film, etc.," Ruiz added. "On TikTok, you could film a 60-second clip as is from your kitchen imparting value and it would perform well."
Jawad agreed, saying the food videos she creates "are not polished or perfect, but they can teach you easy delicious recipes in under a minute without even knowing you were looking to learn a new recipe."
"That’s what’s great about TikTok — it’s the algorithm programmed for discoverability in a way that feels enjoyable and not forced," she said.
Where creators are going
Many TikTokers are heading to RedNote, a platform also based in China. According to reports on Reuters, RedNote has welcomed 700,000 so-called "TikTok refugees."
But some TikTok creators remain skeptical they will flourish there, even if the algorithm is similar.
“I don’t think there’s a likelihood of making money on there because it’s unlikely marketing departments would want to put money behind partnerships on a foreign country app. I’d say Neptune and YouTube seem like the best bets,” said Polina Meshkova, content creator and influencer with 91,500 followers on TikTok. “I think being some of the first users and creators on an app like Neptune will actually have its advantages — similar to getting started on TikTok in 2020 or 2021.”
"I’ll be relying on platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and Hook to post my music content following any potential ban," said Tristan Olson, a producer and DJ remixer with 3.7 million followers on TikTok.
"I’ll be relying on platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and Hook to post my music content"
While other platforms have copied some of TikTok's features, the results aren’t the same, Olson said.
"TikTok provided a creator-friendly environment that was ideal for artist discovery," Olson said. The 'original sound' feature made it so easy to create moments and build community for artists. Instagram and YouTube have these features as well, but the ability to be discovered and have viral moments is significantly more difficult."
Platforms like Instagram are more challenging because of how they started, creators said, and those who cross over will need to work harder to find followers.
"Because Instagram's origins come from following friends, there's a deeper expectation of interaction and fan appreciation. Convincing viewers to follow you matters a whole lot more on Instagram," Appleby said.
Meshkova said this has been an important lesson for creators. They should try to “create something that is solely theirs, such as a brand or a website or a newsletter that will always be there regardless of the social media accounts that technically don’t belong to us but are just a part of an app."
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