After what feels like about 200 years of waiting, Oscar Sunday is finally on the horizon, and if there were ever an awards season race that needed to be a relay, it was this one. Between a collection of industry controversies and devastating natural disasters, a chance to catch our breath would be welcome.
As last year’s holiday movie season wrapped up and conversations focused on certain contenders, it initially looked like we were in for a pretty fun, if a little boring, Oscar race. The Academy held tight to its recent pattern, aiming for diversity in its nominations — both in terms of the performers nominated and the types of films it acknowledged — while still issuing some massive snubs. (Some of us were counting on hearing Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ “Challengers” score blaring through the Dolby Theater to jolt them back to reality Sunday night, but the only place that’ll be heard is from the Bose speaker in my living room.) Even without the freaky flavor of “Babygirl” or the chance to see Marianne Jean-Baptiste pick up her first Oscar, the nominations were exciting enough to surmise that the Academy is still chugging ahead into a forward-thinking era.
And then came the calamities. The nominations were pushed back multiple times due to the Los Angeles wildfires, which skewed pundit prediction patterns when award shows that would typically air before the Oscar nominations were delayed by weeks. Then, “The Brutalist” was taken to task over the use of AI software to perfect Adrien Brody’s Hungarian pronunciation. And if things weren’t precarious enough, the best actress race turned into a minefield. Karla Sofía Gascón’s vehemently racist tweets were blasted across the web for all to see, videos of Fernanda Torres doing blackface resurfaced, and people were very unhappy about Mikey Madison’s comments about intimacy coordinators.
Yet, despite the Oscar race being mired by seemingly endless mishaps, the big show will continue, and the varied nominees suggest that it could be one for the ages. While “Anora” has regained its lead in major categories thanks to a late-season push and some critical wins at the Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs, “The Brutalist” is hot on its tail in several slots. Those two small movies have made a big splash, but don’t count out blockbusters like “Wicked” and “Dune: Part Two” just yet, especially in below-the-line technical awards. And then there’s the gonzo anti-Cinderella story “The Substance,” which rose from B-movie to a worthy rival, with enough push behind it to make the best actress race a nail-biter up until the very last second.
With Hollywood buzzing and the stench of controversy in the air, Sunday night’s ceremony could be a wild one. Below, you’ll find one of Salon’s critics Coleman Spilde going toe-to-toe with our resident film buff and video producer Russell Root to make the final guesses. Who will win, and who should? Read on to find out.
Mikey Madison as Ani in "Anora" (Courtesy of NEON)
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Anora”
Unlike last year’s awards season, which saw “Oppenheimer” emerge as an early best picture frontrunner and maintain its lead, this year’s race for the top prize has been harder to divine. While “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” and “Emilia Pérez” have all won important precursors, “Anora”’s wins at the PGA, DGA, WGA and Critics Choice Awards earlier this month give the film cachet with both industry and critics associations. Some serious contenders this season have also become embroiled in heavily publicized controversies, from AI usage in “The Brutalist” to an “Emilia Pérez” star’s offensive tweets, which may allow “Anora” to rise above the fray and collect the Oscar.
Should Win (Coleman): “Nickel Boys”
While the part of me that craves a renaissance for freaky original cinema would love to see “The Substance” pull off a surprise win, it’s “Nickel Boys” that really deserves the top prize this year. Director RaMell Ross being left out of the directing category is a heinous snub on the Academy’s part. Ross’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel should be considered one of the great films in contemporary American cinema for its blisteringly beautiful view of a bleak world, turning our past and present into poetic cinema that longs for a better future.
Should Win (Russell): “Conclave”
“Conclave” isn’t just the most well-crafted and entertaining nominee, it’s also the most relevant film of the bunch. Its behind-the-scenes examination of papal politics mirrors the painful election season that American filmgoers were subjected to in 2024, and the film’s focus on the divide between the Catholic church’s liberal and conservative blocs likely feels all too familiar to many viewers. “Conclave” offers a cynical take on the electoral process at times, yet it also extends a sincere plea for compassion in times of crisis, a lesson that feels valuable to our country today.
Adrien Brody in "The Brutalist" (A24)
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Will Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Common Oscar wisdom holds that where best picture goes, best director must follow, although recent ceremonies have bucked the trend; in the 15 ceremonies since the Academy widened the best picture pool to 10 nominees, six shows have seen the two awards split between different films. (In many cases, the larger spectacle beats out the smaller-scale film.) The more expansive scope of “The Brutalist” compared to “Anora,” plus Brady Corbet’s wins at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, give Corbet a solid chance going into Oscar Sunday.
Should Win (Coleman): Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
As lukewarm as I was on Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay, it’s impossible to deny the awe Corbet conjures with every frame of “The Brutalist,” and at a much smaller scale than some of his peers. Even when the story lacks, the visual splendor captivates, and Corbet brings intimate and layered performances out of his actors. While this vision of the rotting American dream isn’t my favorite of Corbet’s, it is undoubtedly his most visionary work to date.
Should Win (Russell): Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Corbet’s distillation of the immigrant experience into a soaring epic that uncovers the corruption behind the American dream is nothing short of magnificent. In three-and-a-half hours and for less than $10 million, Corbet reconstructs post-war America from the ground up, proving his sweeping artistic vision to be just as impressive as László Tóth’s. “The Brutalist” is a film, in part, about the perils of unbound creativity, but Corbet manages to prove his own film wrong by assembling the most monumental achievement of any of the five nominees.
Demi Moore in "The Substance" (Courtesy of Mubi)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Awards seasons are all about constructing a winning narrative, and nobody in the best actress category has done so better than Demi Moore, for her career-defining role in “The Substance.” Moore’s story this season has centered on her decades of work within the industry and the surprising lack of critical recognition that has followed; one producer dubbed her a “popcorn actress,” as Moore herself mentioned in her Golden Globe acceptance speech. This stirring narrative, as well as Moore’s wins at the Golden Globes, SAG and the Critics Choice Awards, make her a clear frontrunner for the Oscar.
Should Win (Coleman): Mikey Madison, “Anora”
For as many controversies have plagued “Anora” — the lack of an intimacy coordinator, the multitude of views on its depiction of sex work, the accounts Sean Baker follows on Instagram — Mikey Madison’s star-making performance transcends them all. Madison’s turn is boisterous and bubbly, an achievement in physical comedy that we haven’t seen in some time. But it’s when she turns inward that Madison’s performance starts to sing, revealing the great depth behind her character’s hardened exterior without the need for any showy dramatics.
Should Win (Russell): Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
In this chilling film about forced disappearances under Brazil’s former military dictatorship, Fernanda Torres plays Eunice Paiva, the real-life wife of former Brazilian congressman Rubens Paiva. Torres navigates two worlds as Paiva: one as a mother trying to keep what remains of her family safe, the other as an unexpected activist fighting for the truth of her husband’s whereabouts. Torres captures a paradoxical mix of motherly strength and unspoken terror, and her performance provides a fascinating look at the brutal impact of authoritarianism on the individual.
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
22 years after he became the youngest person ever to win the Academy Award for best actor, Adrien Brody is all but sweeping this awards season on his way to scoring another Oscar. Brody has already snagged a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award for portraying architect László Tóth in “The Brutalist,” so unless Brody ends up on the other side of a shocking upset, the Oscar is his to lose. Let’s just hope he doesn’t kiss anyone this time.
Should Win (Coleman): Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
There are few moments in “Conclave” that stand out as obvious showcases for Ralph Fiennes’ sensational performance, and that’s exactly why Fiennes should win the trophy this year. The way Fiennes’ Cardinal Lawrence navigates his crisis of faith quietly and dutifully is mesmerizing to watch. It speaks to the type of kind-hearted nature that used to be the standard definition of human good, while revealing that ego and greed have become unnervingly worthy adversaries to compassion, left to battle it out behind the closed walls of a papal conclave.
Should Win (Russell): Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Both Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist” and Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave” suffer similar struggles with their faith; whereas Brody’s László Tóth loses faith in America, Fiennes’ Cardinal Lawrence loses faith in the church. As Cardinal Lawrence, Fiennes is pulled between his desire for positive change in the church, his duty to preside over the election of a new pope, and his doubts about the order to which he’s devoted his entire life. Fiennes blends these contradictions beautifully, creating a riveting portrait of a man forced to redefine his faith.
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
One of the few constants this award season has been Zoe Saldaña, who has managed to take home the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and the SAG award for her role in “Emilia Peréz.” Part of this may be her extended screen time; at 57 minutes and 50 seconds, Saldaña appears onscreen for more of the film’s runtime than Karla Sofia Gascon, who is contradictorily nominated in the Best Actress category. No matter the reason, it’s a safe bet to assume Saldaña will continue her winning streak on Sunday night.
Should Win (Coleman): Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
While the second act of “The Brutalist” divided audiences, its introduction of Felicity Jones’ Erzébet was its saving grace. Reuniting with her husband László after years apart, Erzébet finds it easier to adapt than he ever did, but that poses new challenges for a couple relearning how to be married, and if their love has changed along with everything else surrounding them. Jones is soft yet strong, and her performance provides the necessary character foil to send “The Brutalist” to the depths of the soul that Corbet is aiming for.
Should Win (Russell): Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Despite “Wicked”’s many problems, one clear bright spot is Ariana Grande, who manages to bring humor, charm and impeccable vocals to the role of Galinda. Like Saldaña, Grande might be more fairly considered a co-lead, but her comedic talent is undeniable in this film, as she commands attention in every beat she appears onscreen. The fact that Grande has wanted to play Galinda since childhood shows clearly in her performance, and it truly seems to be a role she was born for.
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Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Like Zoe Saldaña, Kieran Culkin has been a regular on the stage during all the major precursor awards, sweeping the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards and SAG. His nomination in the supporting instead of the lead category is also questionable. But the undeniable strength of his comedic performance — combined with the momentum coming off his award-winning role on “Succession” — only solidifies Culkin’s chances to win the award.
Should Win (Coleman): Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Post-”Succession” Jeremy Strong might get a lot of flack for his method approach to roles, but his brand of severity works perfectly for the sickening depiction of Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice.” Sure, the movie is timely — perhaps even too obvious — but Strong’s performance as the Svengali behind Donald Trump’s rise to power is an important chronicle of how evil is forged. Strong doesn’t just nail the impression of Cohn, he’s got Cohn’s slippery air down to a wicked science.
Should Win (Russell): Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Pearce’s performance as American industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren is not only the highlight of “The Brutalist,” it’s also the highlight of his already accomplished career. With careful precision, Pearce weaves layer upon layer of arrogance, stupidity, insecurity and cruelty in every scene, whether it be a conversation he finds “intellectually stimulating” or one of the most horrific moments put to film this year. In a year full of fantastic performances, Pearce’s may be the best.
“Anora,” written by Sean Baker
“The Brutalist,” written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain,” written by Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5,” written by Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; cowritten by Alex David
“The Substance,” written by Coralie Fargeat
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Best original screenplay is one of the year’s most wide-open races, with three of the nominees winning at one of the major precursors: “A Real Pain” at the BAFTAs, “The Substance” at the Critics Choice Awards, and “Anora” at the WGA. (The Golden Globe for Screenplay went to “Conclave,” in the adapted category, providing no elucidation on a frontrunner here.) Still, “Anora”’s considerable strength in best picture compared to its two main competitors may give the film that extra push to take home the Oscar.
Should Win (Coleman): Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
There’s no nominated film this year as original as “The Substance,” and despite the film occasionally veering on a pastiche of other body horror commentaries, Fargeat’s confident screenplay sets the film apart from any comparison. It’s not just her blend of humor and horror that resonates, but rather every minute decision that other writers might not consider. A French writer naming every series on American television some version of “The Show” is inspired enough that Fargeat would, in an ideal world, have this in the bag.
Should Win (Russell): Sean Baker, “Anora”
Sean Baker’s screenplay for “Anora” offers one of the freshest and most thrilling narratives written for the screen over the last year: a frenetic love story capped off with a 24-hour chase around Manhattan that leaves its titular protagonist in the hands of three barely competent gangsters. The pace is relentless, the dialogue is playfully combative, and our access to the characters is intimate and authentic, creating a wholly unique and remarkably moving screenplay among this year’s nominees.
Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence in "Conclave" (Focus Features)
“Conclave,” screenplay by Peter Straughan
“A Complete Unknown,” screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
“Emilia Pérez,” screenplay by Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi
“Nickel Boys,” screenplay by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing,” screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield
Will Win: Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
Unlike the race for original screenplay, the adapted screenplay Oscar is essentially a forgone conclusion. “Conclave” has raked in the precursor awards — the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and that elusive aforementioned Golden Globe — and has maintained its lead as the category frontrunner. The film’s only weakness may be at the recent WGA awards, where it failed to pick up a nomination for adapted screenplay, but this is likely just a small speed bump on the movie's journey to picking up the Oscar.
Should Win (Coleman): Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
Considering Peter Straughan’s excellent screenplay, it’s no surprise that “Conclave” grew from a theatrical thriller aimed at an older demographic to a crossover hit that captivated viewers everywhere. Straughan’s writing deftly considers the moral crises we’re steeped in today without feeling preachy, which is a considerable achievement given that a film about faith is the perfect excuse to be sanctimonious.
Should Win (Russell): Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
“Conclave” excels as a film primarily on the strength of its screenplay, which manages to turn perhaps one of the duller events imaginable — a conclave comprising scores of aging archbishops — into an intelligent and heart-pounding thriller. The screenplay combines secret stairwell negotiations, the art of political backstabbery, and sincere conversations about faith and doubt into a film quite like no other this year, and deserves its honors.
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Will Win: “No Other Land”
Reliably predicting this race has been complicated by the fact that the big winner at BAFTA, PGA and the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” is not among the five listed nominees. With that in mind, “No Other Land” has a slight edge in this category after winning the Independent Spirit Award, the Gotham Award and the International Documentary Award. The film’s focus on the Israeli occupation of the West Bank may pose a problem for some in the industry that has punished actors for speaking in support of Palestine, but its chances on Sunday night seem promising.
Should Win (Coleman): “No Other Land”
“There is no other movie like ‘No Other Land.’” That’s both a clean headline and a true statement. Of all of the timely films nominated at this year’s Oscars, none of them come close to being as affecting as “No Other Land,” the kind of radical documentary filmmaking that history will remember whether awards voting bodies honor it or not. But for the sake of getting as many eyes on this film as possible, let’s hope that they do.
Should Win (Russell): “No Other Land”
What makes “No Other Land” a superb documentary is more than its explosive subject material. Its daring footage—shot mere feet away from Israeli soldiers demolishing villages and schools — lays bare the devastation of forced expulsions in the West Bank, while its unlikely partnership between a Palestinian activist and an Israeli journalist raises thought-provoking questions about whether true understanding can ever exist between the oppressor and the oppressed.
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “The Wild Robot”
Ever since it captured the hearts of children and adults alike over the summer, “The Wild Robot” has maintained its lead in the Oscar race with wins at the Critics Choice Awards and PGA. Its biggest competition is “Flow,” which not only scored an upset win at the Golden Globes but earned a second Oscar nomination for best international feature, but it seems more likely that Academy voters will honor the American film that many of their children remember fondly over the foreign indie film that only saw a limited release.
Should Win (Coleman): “Flow”
Who knew all you needed to create the most nerve-shattering climate crisis film of the year were PlayStation graphics and some adorable, realistic animals to root for? Gints Zilbalodis’ “Flow” uses those two features to pierce the heart and reach the deep well of nostalgia that lives inside us before turning the film on its head. “Flow” is an intricate, beautifully animated film unlike anything else in the category, and rewarding innovative animation like this will pay dividends as time goes on.
Should Win (Russell): “Flow”
“Flow” transports its audience to a fantastical apocalyptic landscape, and while it shares many of the same themes of “The Wild Robot,” from personifying animals to impending ecological collapse, “Flow” is much more delicate in its execution. The character and world design are breathtaking, and despite featuring no dialogue throughout its 85-minute runtime, it provides one of the most emotionally resonant stories put to film this year.
“I’m Still Here,” Brazil
“The Girl With the Needle,” Denmark
“Emilia Pérez,” France
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
“Flow,” Latvia
Will Win: “Emilia Pérez”
The inclusion of more international films into the best picture category has unfortunately eliminated some of the drama behind the race for best international feature; whichever film finds itself in both categories will win in the latter, without fail. This year’s race has shaken up the formula by nominating two films in both categories — “Emilia Pérez” and “I’m Still Here” — but the unstoppable success of “Emilia Pérez” at the Golden Globes, BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards has all but crowned it as the clear winner.
Should Win (Coleman): “I’m Still Here”
Walter Salles’ film is, by all standards, a rather standard dramatic biopic and the kind of movie that the Academy loves to award. But the gently moving “I’m Still Here” surpasses its contemporaries thanks to its well-paced screenplay and its ability to buck conventions in what would otherwise be a timeworn story of perseverance. Fernanda Torres’ stunning performance holds the film together with matriarchal love, but it’s the film’s two codas that have left it lingering in my mind for months.
Should Win (Russell): “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Mohammad Rasoulof’s searing indictment of the Iranian government’s brutality during the country’s 2022 protests is one of the most shocking films of the year, even prompting the Iranian government to sentence Rasoulof to eight years in prison for the film. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a stunning achievement, using real footage captured during the nationwide protests and positioning its intimate family story as a microcosm of the ongoing social unrest. The film provides a stellar examination of blind loyalty to authoritarian governments and the inherent abuse within patriarchal systems of power.
“The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
“Dune: Part Two,” Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez,” Paul Guilhaume
“Maria,” Ed Lachman
“Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke
Will Win: “The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
While this season’s precursor cinematography awards are rather evenly split between “The Brutalist,” “Nosferatu” and “Maria,” Lol Crawley’s work on “The Brutalist” has the stronger narrative going into Oscar night. The film’s use of VistaVision — a widescreen format that was all but abandoned in the early 1960s — spawned countless articles and explainers detailing exactly what VistaVision is, shining a spotlight on the details of cinematography that audiences typically ignore. Plus, “The Brutalist” has major nominations in above-the-line categories, where “Nosferatu” and “Maria” are severely lacking, which will likely give Crawley that extra momentum he needs to win.
Should Win (Coleman): “Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke
The only way that Robert Eggers’ remake of “Nosferatu” could compete with the terrifying images found in F.W. Murnau and Werner Herzog’s earlier versions would be to craft a distinct cinematic palette unlike any other version of the vampire story. The exquisite images that Jarin Blaschke constructs in Eggers’ “Nosferatu” are unparalleled. The sickly gray of a plague-stricken Europe is rivaled only by Blaschke’s navy nightscapes, which boast some of the most breathtaking sequences all year.
Should Win (Russell): “The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
If the two-and-a-half minute-long opening shot of “The Brutalist,” which transports the audience from the bowels of a crowded steamship to a striking upside-down image of the Statue of Liberty, isn’t enough to convince you of Lol Crawley’s towering cinematographic achievement, you need only continue watching. “The Brutalist” is filled with beautifully composed landscapes and static interiors that reflect the rigid geometric style adopted by the film’s architect László Tóth, bringing his fictional work to life on the screen.
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda in "Wicked" (Universal Pictures)
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
While “Wicked” faced plenty of criticism about how the finished film looked, its admirable production design never gave it trouble. Even if the film’s practical set pieces had a layer of CGI smoothing slapped over them, the sprawling production design made “Wicked” feel like a throwback to classic-era musicals. Though “Dune” scooped up a trophy in this category a few years ago, and “The Brutalist” and “Nosferatu” had some impressive constructions, bet on the Academy following the BAFTAs by awarding this mainstream home run.
Should Win (Coleman): “Conclave”
Perhaps an unexpected choice, but I was unexpectedly blown away by the production design in “Conclave,” so it’s fitting. While the film’s cinematography and direction do the heavy lifting to make each shot look good, “Conclave” wouldn’t be half as interesting to look at without its team of production designers. Between recreating the centuries-old architecture of the Vatican to the dreary overhead lighting of the religious residences, there’s always some element tying a frame together in a way that transcends aesthetics to enhance the story — even if it’s a well-placed Nespresso machine.
Should Win (Russell): “Dune: Part Two”
“Dune: Part Two” creates a world that is somehow richer than its predecessor, unlocking new corners of its universe from the black-and-white coliseum of Geidi Prime to the stately capital planet of Kaitain to the severe southern hemisphere of Arrakis. Every locale in the film is characterized by its own distinct environment and culture, as alien to one another as they are to the viewer, yet “Dune: Part Two” manages to make all of these worlds appear at once exotic and authentic. As the most remarkable spectacle to hit theaters last year, “Dune: Part Two” deserves high praise for its one-of-a-kind production design.
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
After a strong showing at the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Costume Designers Guild, it’s hard to imagine a film other than “Wicked” snagging this win. Costume designer Paul Tazewell widened the stage show’s scope to design for hundreds of extras while creating distinct looks for not only the movie’s two leads, but an assortment of tertiary characters as well.
Should Win (Coleman): “Wicked”
Paul Tazewell had the difficult task of emulating looks from both “The Wizard of Oz” and the “Wicked” stage musical while designing costumes that could be unique to a new blockbuster. He rose to the occasion by creating costumes so eye-popping that they became character trademarks. You couldn’t look anywhere without seeing pink and green last fall, but the finer details in Tazewell’s garments were some of a flawed film’s most infallible features.
Should Win (Russell): “Wicked”
One hallmark of truly remarkable costume design is the memorability of its outfits, which should be just as visible in the viewer’s imagination even after the credits roll. Of the nominees, only “Conclave” and “Wicked” accomplish this feat. While the deep red cassocks that fill nearly every frame of “Conclave” are extraordinary, the sheer variety of iconic costumes in “Wicked — from Galinda’s assortment of pink dresses to Elphaba’s stylish twist on the classic witch hat — is essential to constructing the magical world of Oz.
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “The Substance”
More than any other nominated film in this category, “The Substance” hinges on makeup and hairstyling to make its grotesque thrills an unforgettable sight. But even before the balance goes unrespected, the team behind “The Substance” elevated the beauty of its stars to make their mutual descent into frightful abominations all the more jarring.
Should Win (Coleman): “The Substance”
If you’ve made it through the final act of “The Substance,” this is a no-brainer. The hair and makeup team effectively subvert Demi Moore’s movie star to make her the centerpiece of the most literal hagsploitation film in decades. Every wrinkly finger, bedraggled wig and lipstick-smeared visage are a sight to behold. And as if those weren’t enough, there’s the world-class beauty we meet in the climax known as Monstro Elisasue, an incredible accomplishment that is entirely the work of these below-the-line artists. Taking a curling iron to a single dangling piece of hair on a bald head? Brava!
Should Win (Russell): “The Substance”
While part of me would love to see the criminally under-nominated “A Different Man” win in its one eligible category, “The Substance” deserves the award for its brilliant and imaginative take on body horror. The film's slow descent into prosthetic-laced chaos cleverly uses the genre’s conventions to make a provocative point about the supposed “expiration” of feminine beauty, punctuated by the most gratuitous gross-out scene to grace the Academy’s ballot since “Triangle of Sadness”’s vomit cruise. Without the film’s talented makeup team, there is no third-act monstrosity spontaneously growing and shedding body parts — and who wants that?
“Conclave”
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Conclave”
Because The Academy bafflingly shut out Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers,” which took the editing prize at a bevy of Oscar run-ups, expect a similarly safe decision for the winner in this category. The tension mounting throughout “Conclave” thanks to its tight editing will likely affect Academy voters just as much as it did mainstream audiences.
Should Win (Coleman): “Conclave”
For a film that’s essentially cinematic catnip for the CBS crowd, “Conclave” is, shockingly, never boring. That’s all thanks to Nick Emerson, whose work helps the film’s tone bounce between taut thriller and shocking drama as he examines the quickly shifting allegiances that dictate the future of modern religion. What’s more, his editing keeps the film’s pace at a steady stride, never letting the air out of the room until the credits roll. With the modern thriller on life support thanks to waning attention spans, holding an audience’s focus is no small feat.
Should Win (Russell): “Conclave”
Nick Emerson’s editing work on “Conclave” helps the film walk the strange line between absurd comedy and tense drama, creating an entirely different beast. Disorienting shots of competing papal candidates add urgency to the reveal of election results, while an accusatory confrontation between two cardinals is punctuated by the anachronistic reveal of an espresso machine. The editing in “Conclave” is a constant reminder that the film’s frequently serious tone is just one possible interpretation of its story. There is strange hilarity in every aspect of this outdated ritual.
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
This is a neck-and-neck category, with “Dune: Part Two” pulling ahead after its first installment won this award in 2022. It's also a franchise synonymous with its all-consuming theatrical soundwork. It also picked up the BAFTA in this category a couple of weeks back. But “A Complete Unknown” won for its sound work at the Cinema Audio Society, which could shake the table for “Dune.”
Should Win (Coleman): “Dune: Part Two”
One of the great things about being a critic is the chance to use your knowledge to find new and interesting ways to describe why a film is great. But the expertise is physically shaken out of me when surrounded by the impeccable sound work in one of Villeneuve’s “Dune” films. With the metal in colliding knives, the foley work of sand beneath a boot and the glottal roaring of a sandworm, I am reduced to a slack, muttering, awe-struck child. Frankly, that feeling is so rare these days that “Dune: Part Two” should take this home on wonder alone.
Should Win (Russell): “Dune: Part Two”
As with its nominations in many of the below-the-line categories, the sound in “Dune: Part Two” is vital to establishing the film’s epic scope, rendering it more than deserving of winning the Oscar. Imagine the Battle of Arrakeen without the deafening blare of the sandworm emerging from the dust, the spilling of sand down the fronts of Fremen as they emerge from the ground, or the buzzing of ornithopter wings over the city. “Dune: Part Two” needs to be seen in theaters for many reasons, and chief among them is the impeccable sound design.
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
The Academy tends to favor forceful, capital-S scores over productions that blend seamlessly into the atmosphere of the film they’re a part of. One would think that would’ve made “Challengers” a surefire nominee here — combined with its winning streak at other shows—but it was shockingly snubbed, so “The Brutalist” is the next best bet.
Should Win (Coleman): “The Brutalist”
More than its cinematography, direction or performances, Daniel Blumberg’s score makes “The Brutalist.” The composer’s stunning brass and vital percussion push against the confines of his overtures, grabbing the audience by the collar and bringing them in close to hear every plodding, silvery note. No theatrical score this year was as exhilarating as Blumberg’s as it built toward and settled into Corbet’s well-earned intermission.
Should Win (Russell): “The Brutalist”
“The Brutalist” requires a score that evokes mid-century America, and luckily, Daniel Blumberg’s score is mid-century America. Blumberg’s mix of Copland-esque brass fanfare, frenetic nightclub jazz, and sparse avant-garde compositions creates a broad melodic and tonal palette borrowing from many dominant musical styles of the period, making architect László Tóth’s work feel even more connected to innovative post-war aesthetics. Plus, the film’s central three-note motif stirs in the viewer a primal hope and unease, the perfect accompaniment to Toth’s journeys in America.
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late
Will Win: “El Mal,” “Emilia Pérez”
With “Emilia Pérez” snatching up awards left and right for its songs, it’s hard to imagine that Diane Warren’s 16th nomination for “The Journey” from “Six Triple Eight” could pull out a surprise win. Even with the air of scandal still wafting around “Emilia Pérez,” bet on “El Mal.”
Should Win (Coleman): “El Mal,” “Emilia Pérez”
Hear me out and put the tomatoes away. If “Emilia Pérez clinches this win, then at least the next time a French person wants to make a comically regressive movie, maybe they’ll camp it up so there’s one redeeming quality. To be fair, “El Mal” is one of the film’s best (and least offensive) songs, with Zoe Saldaña singing words like a silver-tongued viper as she spits scathing accusations. The mixing of the song in the actual film isn’t as strong, but the standard version isn’t an unworthy contender.
Should Win (Russell): “Like a Bird,” “Sing Sing”
While nobody could accuse this year’s best original song race of having the same excitement as last year’s nominees, the clear best choice out of the bunch is “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing.” Its laid-back R&B beat and its mellow production style help the song stand out among the typical assortment of overproduced ballads (and Emilia Pérez's atypical dance numbers), and it is the only song among the five nominees that I have chosen to listen to more than once.
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Once again, the winning history of “Dune” in this category combined with “Part Two” scooping up a recent BAFTA puts “Dune” in the lead, especially against “Wicked” which did not leave audiences so … obsessed with its visual effects.
Should Win (Coleman): “Better Man”
It’s not that “Dune: Part Two” isn’t a worthy contender in this category. If anything, it objectively deserves the gold here. But I can’t get the Robbie Williams CGI monkey out of my head! “Better Man” has genuinely great CGI, and what’s more, it’s for a highly original biopic that isn’t a sequel.
Should Win (Russell): “Dune: Part Two”
This award is really no contest. The other four nominees provide a range of impressive special effects, including an assortment of various CGI monkeys, but no film matches the impact of “Dune: Part Two.” With its ambitious battle sequences on the sands of Arrakis, its array of otherworldly science-fiction contraptions, and yes, its sandworms, “Dune: Part Two” is a blockbuster that lives or dies by the scope of its visual effects—and does not disappoint.
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Will Win: “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
For the short film categories, which are notoriously tough to predict, trust the patterns you find from past years. The last two years of documentary shorts have seen crowdpleasers about elephant sanctuaries and instrument repair shops taking home the gold, so this heartwarming short about Tokyo schoolchildren learning to play “Ode to Joy” seems most likely to resonate with voters.
Should Win (Coleman): “Incident”
While “Instruments of a Beating Heart” made me weep with joy, “Incident” made me roil with fury. The short is a crude yet easy-to-follow look at police violence in real time using bodycam footage and CCTV, and reveals how systems of power are stacked against those they oppress. It’s gripping and informative without sermonizing — everything a great documentary should be.
Should Win (Russell): “Incident”
“Incident” is certainly less polished than its fellow nominees, forgoing interviews or resounding scores in favor of low-resolution security camera and body-cam footage to recount the police shooting of Harith “Snoop” Augustus. Yet where the documentary shines is in its editing of this rough footage, stacking scattered pieces of footage in and around the crime scene to reproduce the chaotic aftermath of an officer-involved shooting and to show how a cover-up unfolds in real-time. While the footage itself is haunting, the more frightening moments occur when the images and sound disappear, when the officers collectively shut off their body cameras to avoid any further incrimination.
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Will Win: “Anuja”
All of the live-action shorts nominated in this category stand a fighting chance, particularly “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” and “A Lien” but “Anuja” has the accessibility of Netflix behind it and features Mindy Kaling’s star power as a producer, which voters are likely to favor.
Should Win (Coleman): “I’m Not a Robot”
The thing about all of the shorts categories is that they’re often where you’ll find timely, necessary films that don’t shy away from taking on politics and power. That’s great, and I want that, but sometimes I want entertainment, style and originality too, and all of those things exist in this exciting, economical tale of a woman who can’t get past a CAPTCHA.
Should Win (Russell): “A Lien”
“A Lien”’s title tells it all; the film’s main character, an undocumented immigrant, and his family are treated as little more than property to be repossessed by the government. This harrowing short follows a couple appearing for the husband’s green card interview, only for ICE agents to use this necessary step in the immigration process as a trap to arrest the husband. The film is superbly shot and edited, and highlights the absurd horror of the United States’ deportation practices, which are likely set to ramp up under this new administration.
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Will Win: Yuck!
Just like in documentary short, history has proven the animated short award to favor crowd-pleasing films, and this delightfully immature French film about kissing is sappy enough to score the votes.
Should Win (Coleman): “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
The scope of this story — about an old ship captain suffering from PTSD and his beleaguered daughter — is admirable for any short, but the beautifully rendered flat animation style has a lovely nostalgic quality that pairs with the narrative perfectly. A short that you can get lost in, even just for 20 minutes.
Should Win (Russell): “Beautiful Men”
Fans of delightfully weird claymation are spoiled with this year’s animated short category, from the sweets-filled fantasy of “Magic Candies” to the feral survival story of “Wander to Wonder.” The most compelling short, though, is “Beautiful Men,” about three middle-aged brothers traveling to Istanbul for a hair transplant. Their relationships soon fracture into compounding insecurities, yet their brotherly affection persists, making this short one of the most endearing nominees in any of the shorts categories.
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