Watching "Real Housewives" can help us predict Trump's next moves

Upon establishing the Constitution of the United States, Benjamin Franklin said that, though he had hopes for the document’s longevity, the only things that would be certain moving forward were death and taxes. He was correct for a couple of centuries, at least until Donald Trump and “The Real Housewives” came along. Now, there are four irrefutable guarantees in this modern life: death, taxes, Trumpian chaos and at least one “Real Housewives” franchise airing on television at all times.  

But updating that dusty, old document shouldn’t be too much of a stretch, given that rewriting the Constitution is already a favored tactic among the Trump administration. Although, what foundational systems of America don’t feel like they’re being besieged lately? Longstanding policies, laws and modes of operation have been replaced by an onslaught of executive orders, mass government layoffs and allowing Elon Musk an unprecedented amount of influence. In simpler terms: The American government is under attack, and nobody knows what it’s like to be attacked more than a Real Housewife, whose first-season handbook includes an entire chapter on weaponizing that word. 

This isn’t to say that two Housewives fighting about who stole a McMansion is directly comparable to Trump having a death grip on the White House, only that, despite all the cynics who claim it’s a meritless void, “Housewives” remains a valuable lens for analyzing our culture. Keeping up with the current news cycle is a uniquely challenging task. These days, we need more gumption and electrolytes to check CNN than we do to climb Everest. Trust me, it’s only a matter of time until a single push notification sends my phone flying against a wall and me to the Apple store with my tail between my legs.

But it often seems like that is precisely how exhausted and defeated the Trump administration wants people to feel whenever they enact a frightening new policy or make an inane change to a longstanding system that nobody wanted. (Getting rid of the Social Security phone service for seniors, who are famously not the most tech-savvy demographic? No notes.) The mission feels like its intent is to confuse, surprise and gaslight, and the only people who can give Trump a run for his money on those tactics are Housewives, who get a crash course in all three things before cameras go up. Both politics and “Housewives” are inescapable, no matter how hard we try to avoid them. And though “Housewives” outsiders might be reluctant to admit it, the show has become a salient point of contemporary American culture that can help viewers better understand the dynamics of the world around them.

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Suppose you are one of those outsiders, either to the world of “Real Housewives” or to the inner-workings of Trump’s second administration. In that case, you might be surprised to learn that there’s quite a bit of crossover between the two — and not just because several cast members of Bravo’s most famous franchise have voted for the man. Each “Housewives” series is a rickety house of cards, just waiting for a dramatic gust of wind to implode its structure so it can be rebuilt with the queens and jokers in a different place. Trump’s orbit shuffles just as frequently. It’s uncertain who will be the president’s favorite from week to week, only that he is the most powerful in this cast. 

In Bravo terms, Trump is at the center of the commercial bumper used to bookend ad breaks and each episode’s opening taglines. In these bumpers, the cast of a “Housewives” show line up next to one another and hold up an object that tangentially relates to whatever city the cast lives in. The object varies between individual series; snowflakes for “Real Housewives of Salt Lake City,” apples for “New York,” you get the picture. Whoever stands in the middle of the group is designated the “center,” and therefore, the season's top dog. Directly flanking Trump at either side would be JD Vance and Musk. From there, the line would fan out with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth, Kristi Noem and Linda McMahon —at least this week. What would this cast hold in their bumpers? Miniature Teslas or red MAGA hats. Or, ooo, nothing says “presidential” like some of those ridiculous Trump trading cards he was hawking before the election.

(Funnily enough, the short-lived “Real Housewives of D.C.” did not hold anything for their one beautiful trainwreck of a season.) 

Like most “Housewives” series, the Trump administration has plenty of "friends-of" dropping into its cast of cartoon villains, and if they make a good enough impression during their time on-camera, they might just get bumped up to a season regular. Of course, the decks are shuffled much more frequently in the Trump Cabinet, but only because his reality show is not beholden to network episode orders and a litany of contractual agreements to be fulfilled. That constant instability is because American politics are seemingly no longer about actual policy, they’re about who can cozy up to Trump by doing his bidding most dotingly. And if someone in the administration can’t predict the president’s every thought, they risk being slapped with the moniker every Housewife dreads: “one-season-wonder.”

Former “RHONY” Housewife Cindy Barshop, a one-and-done from Season 4, once received a dressing down that tells us everything we need to know about how Donald Trump operates. After Barshop invited fellow Housewife Ramona Singer to a party and didn’t have a glass of pinot grigio ready and waiting for the most notorious white wine enthusiast on the East Coast, another cast member, Sonja Morgan, gave her an astute look at how “Housewives” operates. “There is a pecking order,” Morgan said. “You better know where your alliances are.”

In the normal world, where you and I exist, that’s an outrageous statement to say to anybody. But in the world of “Housewives,” it’s the truth. The pecking order might change from season to season — even episode to episode — but it exists, and the success of any individual Housewife depends on their ability to identify it and play the game long enough to find out how the hierarchy operates. The same goes for Trump’s administration. Play by his rules long enough and you’ll be rewarded with enough independence to assert some control over your fate, as Musk has been able to do by implementing his vague DOGE program into the American consciousness, something that will have lasting traumatic effects. But cross Trump at the wrong time and the hammer will swing down, just like it did to Barshop.

U.S. President Donald Trump and White House Senior Advisor, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sit in a Tesla Model S on the South Lawn of the White House on March 11, 2025 in Washington, DC (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)This is all to say that Trump plays by the reality show regulations. After a long stretch as the host and star of “The Apprentice,” it seems as though Trump realized that manipulating the real world like a softly produced reality show could work to his advantage, and to viewers' eyes, he's been doing it ever since. The only rule is that there are no rules. What would’ve constituted a headline-making scandal is brushed under the rug after a few days, with the notorious government actors treated with impunity. Things operate similarly over on Bravo, where the only things that can get you kicked off a “Housewives” show are acknowledging the farce of having cameras follow you around all day and abject racism. Sadly, we know the latter isn’t true for Trump’s administration. If anything, a racist scandal in Trump’s cabinet of fools constitutes a promotion to Top Jester of the Week. But I can’t imagine that a drunk driving incident would be enough for anyone to lose their spot in Trumpworld. And if a Housewife gets a DUI? They usually end up at the center of the cast bumper next season. 

Because the interpersonal relationships within the administration directly affect the public, it’s only wise that we try to stay one step ahead, and if that results in people flocking to “Housewives” to study the politics of friendship at play, so be it. Anyone who’s seen “Real Housewives of Potomac” Grand Dame Karen Huger haze a cast newbie would know that incoming cabinet members face the same fate. “Housewives of Beverly Hills” royalty Kyle Richards functions more like RFK Jr.; both are part of a family dynasty and can pull new things to be mad about out of thin air just to get airtime. Had Volodymyr Zelenskyy been versed in “Real Housewives of Salt Lake City,” surely he would’ve known that his Oval Office meeting with Trump was going to end with a Meredith Marks-esque ousting.

(l-r) Jacqueline Blake, Stacey Rusch, Andy Cohen and Wendy Osefo during "The Real Housewives of Potomac" reunion episode (Clifton Prescod/Bravo)That said, there is a line between using “Housewives” as a map for where our country is headed and being totally flippant. Bravo producer Andy Cohen’s recent post about the spat between Trump and Zelenskyy, where he said that Zelenskyy “ate them up” (and misspelled the Ukrainian president’s name), was a bit too facetious for my taste. I don’t want to dumb this administration down or make light of their reprehensible actions, only give those who may be fearful or feel lost a little bit of accessible guidance to dip their toe into the muck. As difficult as that can be, we mustn’t give up just because being a progressive person in America often seems more challenging than it's ever been. If that means watching or rewatching Bethenny Frankel withhold damning information about Luann de Lesseps’ one-time fiancé to analyze her machinations, then so be it!

But perhaps the most important thing to remember — and I say this at the risk of upending everything you’ve just read — is that, like “Housewives,” no amount of pattern tracking and anthropological research will help you predict exactly what will come next. There will inevitably be an event that comes out of left field that makes our jaws drop. If we have any luck, it’ll be as fleeting and inconsequential as the next shocking moment, always just around the corner on next week’s episode.